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- Population simulations of COVID-19 outbreaks provide tools for risk assessment and continuity planning (2021)
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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
recommended
This web application serves as a planning tool for COVID-19 outbreaks in communities across the world. It implements a simple SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with additional categories for individuals exposed to the virus that are not yet infectious, severely sick people in need of hospit...
Version 15.4.2020
Mögliche Szenarien mit unterschiedlicher Daür und Wirkungsstärke wesentlicher Gegenmaßnahmen
2020-04-21 Rechenmodell Verlauf Deutschland
Reduzierende Massnahmen
Expertenparameter Infektionsverlauf
Krankenhausaufenthalt
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, as of 10-June-20 EuroMOMONetwork, Bulletin, Week 23, 2020 Worldometer
The purpose of this work is to estimate potential COVID-19 case burdens in each African nation considering various social distancing interventions. Given current trends in case burden, the model estimates the potential resource needs that would be needed under different scenarios. The model is for p...
19 April 2020
To contain the spread of COVID-19 and to keep infections at a manageable level, many countries have instituted lockdowns and social distancing. In India, a nationwide 21-day lockdown was announced with effect from 25 March 2020. This lockdown is expected to avert a sudden and large in...
In einem häufig verwendeten Modellierungskonzept, den so genannten SEIR-Modellen,1-3 wird die Bevölke-rung in verschiedene Gruppen unterteilt, und die Dy-namik der Infektionen und Erkrankungen wird über eine Modellierung der Übergänge zwischen diesen Gruppen nachgebildet. Die Buchstaben S...
This calculator implements a classical infectious disease model — SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Removed), an idealized model of spread still used in frontlines of research e.g.
ESTUDIO ENE-COVID19: Segunda Ronda del Estudio Nacional de Sero-Epidemiología de la Infección por SARS-CoV-2 en España; Informe preliminar 3 de Junio de 2020 Informe nº 33. Análisis de los casos de COVID-19 notificados a la RENAVE hasta el 10 de mayo en España a 29 de mayo de 2020. Equipo COVI...
The Lancet Global Health Published:May 12, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30229-1
BMJ Global Health2020;5:e002914. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002914
The evidence produced in mathematical models plays a key role in shaping policy decisions in pandemics. A key question is therefore how well pandemic models relate to their implementation contexts. Drawing on the cases of Ebola and in...
This report presents three scenarios on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa using economic growth forecasts, mortality and efforts to ameliorate impact through social grants. Likely effects are examined on per capita income, poverty and the attainment of selected Sustainable Development Goals targets. ...
For COVID-19, as for many infectious diseases, the true level of transmission is frequently underestimated because a substantial proportion of people with the infection are undetected either because they are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and thus typically fail to present at healthcare fac...
Schlussfolgerungen auf Basis der umfassendsten Erhebungen zu nationalen und regionalen Infektionsraten November 2020
Unsere Infoboxen zeigen das Ansteckungs-, Erkrankungs- und Sterberisiko für Menschen verschiedenen Alters, wenn sie in Kontakt mit dem Influenza- oder Corona-Virus kommen (z.B. durch engen Kontakt mit einem infizierten Haushaltsmitglied) und die Risiken eines engen Kontaktes für Menschen verschied...
ABSTRACT
Objectives: We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations.
Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from ...
