Last revised 2015.
Original Word document on: http://www.epnetwork.org/Resources/Standard%20Operating%20Procedure/Forecasting%20and%20budgeting%20spread%20sheet_Form.doc
Submitted to the US Agency for International Development by the Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services (SIAPS) Program. Arlington, VA: Management Sciences for Health. Submitted to the United Nations Children’s Fund by JSI, Arlington, VA: JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc....
This guide will assist program managers, service providers, and technical experts when conducting a quantification of commodity needs for the 13 reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health commodities prioritized by the UN Commission on Life-Saving Commodities for Women and Children. This quantification supplement should be used with the main guide—Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement. * This supplement describes the steps in forecasting consumption of these supplies when consumption and service data are not available; after which, to complete the quantification, the users should refer to the main quantification guide for the supply planning step.
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Soumis à l’Agence des États-Unis pour le développement international par le programme SIAPS (Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services ou Programme des systèmes pour l’amélioration de l’accès aux produits et services pharmaceutiques). Arlington, VA : Management Sciences... for Health. Soumis à l’UNICEF par JSI, Arlington, VA : JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc.
Ce guide aidera les gestionnaires de programmes, les prestataires de service et les experts techniques lorsqu'ils réaliseront une quantification des besoins en intrants pour les 13 produits indispensables à la santé reproductive, maternelle, néonatale et infantile, dont la priorité a été établie par la Commission des Nations Unies pour les produits qui sauvent la vie des femmes et des enfants. Ce supplément à la quantification ne saurait être utilisé sans son guide principal – Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement (Quantification des intrants de santé : un guide pour la prévision des achats et la planification des approvisionnements). * Ce supplément décrit les étapes à suivre pour la prévision de la consommation de ces intrants, en l’absence de données sur la consommation ou les services. Ensuite, afin de compléter la quantification, les utilisateurs doivent se référer au guide principal de quantification pour l’étape de planification de l’approvisionnement.
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The Pocket Guide to Managing Contraceptive Supplies addresses one of
the most important components of any program that provides family
planning services—the logistics system that manages the delivery,
quality, and storage of contraceptive supplies. These supplies are
essential; without them, f...amily planning services cannot be provided.
This guide is for the staff of family planning or health clinics who
manage contraceptive supplies and for the supervisor who oversees
these logistics activities. This booklet is not a complete logistics text;
its purpose is to be a quick reference for logistics formulas and
principles to help you manage your supplies (both contraceptives and
other commodities) correctly and efficiently.
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This study aims to analyze national and international stakeholders and their initiatives in Early Warning Systems in Myanmar, to identify priority gaps that need to be addressed by all stakeholders. It is presented as a first step towards supporting GoUM in information-gathering under the Myanmar Ac...tion Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction (MAPDRR), in particular under Components (2) Risk Assessment, (3) Multi-hazard Early Warning System and (4) Preparedness at all levels, and especially in implementing Sub-Component (3.4) Enhanced Flood Monitoring and Forecasting Capacities at Township Levels.
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The guidelines are presented in the form of the following chapters:
Chapter 1: Floods status and context
Chapter 2: Institutional framework and financial arrangements
Chapter 3: Flood prevention, preparedness and mitigation
Chapter 4: Flood forecasting and warning in India
C...hapter 5: Dams, reservoirs and other water shortages
Chapter 6: Regulation and enforcement
Chapter 7: Capacity development
Chapter 8: Flood response
Chapter 9: Implementation of guidelines: preparation of flood management plans
Chapter 10: Summary of action points
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This Case Study explores flood forecasting systems from the perspective of its position within the flood warning process. A method for classifying the different approaches taken in flood forecasting is introduced before the elements of a present-day flood forecasting system are discussed in detail. ...Finally, the state of the art in developing flood forecasting systems is addressed including how to deal with specific challenges posed.
The target group of this case study are decision makers in disaster risk management and/or water management. The case study should help to understand some hydrologic basics of the flood forecast and assist in the administration and implementation of an appropriate flood warning system in a specific environment, to find the best solution for a region.
Best solutions depend mainly on quality and availability of data, the areas and/or points of interest, catchment properties, cross border catchments, and financial capabilities with special consideration of flood forecast.
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The USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 4, developed this guide for quantifying health commodities; it will assist technical advisors, program managers, warehouse managers, procurement officers, and service providers in (1) estimating the total commodity needs and costs for successful implementation... of national health program strategies and goals, (2) identifying the funding needs and gaps for procuring the required commodities, and (3) planning procurements and shipment delivery schedules to ensure a sustained and effective supply of health commodities.
The step-by-step approach to quantification presented in this guide is complemented by a set of product-specific companion pieces that include detailed instructions for forecasting consumption of antiretroviral drugs, HIV test kits, antimalarial drugs, and laboratory supplies.
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The purpose of this work is to estimate potential COVID-19 case burdens in each African nation considering various social distancing interventions. Given current trends in case burden, the model estimates the potential resource needs that would be needed under different scenarios. The model is for p...lanning purposes and is based on current understanding and the most up-to-date assumptions. Results reported here are not forecasts but scenarios that may unfold given the assumptions about social-distancing and population health.
You can download scenarios for North Africa; Middle Africa; West Africa, East Africa and South Africa
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19 April 2020
To contain the spread of COVID-19 and to keep infections at a manageable level, many countries have instituted lockdowns and social distancing. In India, a nationwide 21-day lockdown was announced with effect from 25 March 2020. This lockdown is expected to avert a sudden and large in...crease in the number of infections in the short term. Additionally, interventions such as social distancing and isolation of infected individuals over several months could reduce peak infections. Interventions such as frequent handwashing, reduced mass gatherings, contact tracing, and quarantines could slow transmission and reduce overall infections.
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This tool is designed to help governments, partners, and other stakeholders to estimate potential requirements for essential supplies to respond to the current pandemic of COVID-19. Although it gives users with an estimation of the number of cases, this calculator is not an epidemiological calculato...r.
The focus of this tool is to forecast essential supplies: it includes estimation of personal protective equipment, diagnostic equipment, biomedical equipment for case management, essential drugs for supportive care, and consumable medical supplies.
The COVID-19 ESFT tool is intended to be complimentary to the Health Workforce tools (Adaptt and the Workforce Estimator). Both tools use the same base clinical attack rate ranges and classify health workforce using ILO ISCO codes, but their outputs are intentionally different due to their primary focus.
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The WHO COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool (COVID-19-ESFT) is meant to help countries forecast essential supplies for their COVID-19 response including personal protective equipment (e.g., masks and gloves), biomedical equipment for case management (e.g., ventilators and oxygen concentrato...rs), diagnostic reagents and equipment, essential drugs for supportive care, and consumable medical supplies.
The tool is best suited for estimating essential supply needs over a short time period (12 weeks or fewer) but can be used for longer.
COVID-19-ESFT does not quantify or account for resources already available locally or those pending delivery. When using the ESFT to inform procurement, we recommend factoring in resources already available locally and only including the additional resources required in the forecast.
This tool is updated regularly so users should monitor the website for the latest release version.
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BMJ Global Health, Vol.5 No. 12Spatial subdivision of the camp (‘sectoring’) was able to ‘flatten the curve’, reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with the efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced t...he overall incidence of infection, and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly in order to be maximally effective. Lockdowns had only small effects on COVID-19 dynamics.
Conclusions
Agent-based models are powerful tools for forecasting the spread of disease in spatially structured and heterogeneous populations. Our findings suggest that feasible interventions can slow the spread of COVID-19 in a refugee camp setting, and provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies. Our model can be modified to study other closed populations at risk from COVID-19 or future epidemics.
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Временное руководство23 декабря 2020 г.
The WHO COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool (ESFT) assists governments, partners, and other stakeholders to forecast the necessary volume of personal protective equipment, diagnostic equipment, consumable medical supplies, biomedical equipment for case management, and essential drugs for su...pportive care and treatment of COVID-19. The tool provides the user with a choice among several epidemiological methods for forecasting COVID-19 cases, including an integration with Imperial College’s Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model.
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The frequency of infectious disease epidemics is increasing, and the role of the health sector in the management of epidemics is crucial in terms of response. In the context of infectious disease epidemics, the use of climate-informed early warning systems (EWS) has the potential to increase the eff...ectiveness of disease control by intervening before or at the beginning of the epidemic curve, instead of during the downward slope.
Currently, the initiation of interventions is heavily reliant on routine disease surveillance systems – data that often arrive too late for preventative response. However, forecasting of disease outbreaks using surveillance and weather information shows promising potential – there also remains further scope to examine seasonal climate forecasts. By combining these elements in new EWS based on computational models, it will be possible to improve both the timeliness and impact of disease control. The World Health Organization (WHO) is strengthening existing surveillance systems for infectious diseases to enable the development of more robust and timely EWS, which has resulted in the rapid development and innovation of EWS for disease outbreaks.
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Lancet Public health 2022 January 6, 2022 https://doi.org/10.1016/ S2468-2667(21)00249-8
Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform nati...onal planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.
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The Triatominae are vectors for Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of the neglected tropical Chagas disease. Their distribution stretches across Latin America, with some species occurring outside of the Americas. In particular, the cosmopolitan vector, Triatoma rubrofasciata, has already been... detected in many Asian and African countries. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach to project the climatic suitability of 11 triatomine species under current climate conditions on a global scale. Our results revealed potential hotspots of triatomine species diversity in tropical and subtropical regions between 21 ̊N and 24 ̊S latitude. We also determined the climatic suitability of two temperate species (T. infestans, T. sordida) in Europe, western Australia and New Zealand. Triatoma rubrofasciata has been projected to find climatically suitable conditions in large parts of coastal areas throughout Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, emphasising the importance of an international vector surveillance program in these regions.
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We developed an integrated vector surveillance (IVS) proposal for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Americas, based on eco-epidemiological studies conducted by researchers of the Leishmaniasis Research Network of Argentina. For CL, the transmission was explained in ...the framework of the edge effect, the increase of vectors and risk of exposure at ecotones and environmental interfaces, and typified as ephemeral, transient, or permanent edges, supporting a cost-effective IVS strategy for early warning of CL outbreaks through an environmental modification alert network, which includes multiple sources of information and actors. In relation to VL, the earliest colonization sites and spatial distribution were explained by modeling and forecasting the most likely hotspots, persistent in time and space, and modulated by environmental variables. Therefore, for VL, a scalar strategy of critical site selection is proposed from a “city” scale based on secondary sources such as remote sensing for the definition of possible areas to monitor and intervene, a scale of restriction from possible to most likely areas through local knowledge, and a “focal site” scale of trap placement through field observation; in this way, IVS activities are carried out at a few sites of the urban landscape and allow a sustainable program.
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