The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these vi...ruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world. more

The Lancet Planetary Health Published:May 17, 2022DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00090-0 Every year pollution causes 9 million deaths—1 in every 6 deaths worldwide, according to a Lancet Commission on pollution and health. While the number of deaths caused by household air pollution a...nd water pollution decreased from 2015 to 2019, overall deaths remain roughly the same because of a 7% increase in deaths caused by air pollution and toxic chemical pollution. more