There is growing pressure on PEPFAR, the U.S. global HIV program, to increase its planning for sustainability, including through domestic resource mobilization and, ultimately, transitioning financing at
least in part to recipient countries. While this is connected to a broader push in global healt...h and development, driven by a constrained financing environment and desire to promote more countryownership of programs and services, there are specific questions facing PEPFAR’s future. A National Academy report from 2017, for example, recommended that PEPFAR look toward phasing down its spending and supporting countries in their transition from bilateral aid to domestic financing for HIV. At a
Senate hearing last year, PEPFAR was asked how it was working to increase domestic resources and under what conditions would it need less resources to accomplish its goals. Recent challenges in securing a five-year reauthorization of the program have only served to heighten the focus on
sustainability and domestic resource mobilization. How PEPFAR does this, however, remains an ongoing question.
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This paper examines the implications of the IMF’s April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in gove...rnments' capacities to increase health spending, with differences not only observed across income groups but also within them. Primary concerns focus to two groups of low- and lower middleincome
countries: the first group is projected to experience a contraction in real per capita GHE from 2019 and 2029, threatening to reverse progress toward the health SDG targets, while the other group faces stagnation in real per capita GHE, greatly limiting advancement. The insights presented are crucial for health policymakers and their external partners to respond to evolving macro-fiscal circumstances and stabilize investment growth in health. While increasing the priority of health in spending is a key policy option, it will not be sufficient on its own. Effective responses also
require improving spending efficiency and addressing broader fiscal challenges. Without decisive action, many countries have little chance of achieving the health SDGs.
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