Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
An Ebola epidemic that started in March 2014 in Guinea has relentlessly continued to claim lives and to spread to other countries in West Africa. The current Ebola outbreak is the largest in history and the first to affect multiple countries simu...ltaneously. There have been over 24 000 reported confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (table 1), with almost 10 000 reported deaths (outcomes for many cases are unknown). A total of 58 new confirmed cases were reported in Guinea, 0 in Liberia, and 58 in Sierra Leone in the 7 days to 8 March (4 days to 5 March for Liberia). Many experts believe that the official numbers substantially understate the size of the outbreak because of families' widespread reluctance to report cases. Because of the fluidity of movement of people between West Africa and several countries in the East African countries, especially Kenya and Ethiopia (who in turn have extensive interaction with other countries in the region in terms of human movement), the risk of an outbreak of Ebola in East Africa is as eminent as in any of the countries bordering the affected countries. The IFRC regional office intends to support National Societies to raise their Ebola preparedness and response capacity through training, technical support in planning and implementation of Ebola related activities, and coordination both within and outside the movement.
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Recent systematic reviews and meta-analysis of the impact of chemical-based mollusciciding (King et al., 2015, Sokolow et al., 2016) have concluded that regular mollusciciding is likely to contribute significantly towards elimination of schistosomiasis in high-risk areas. The WHO roadmap’s new foc...us on “transmission control, wherever possible” (WHO, 2012a) reinforces the need to promote intermediate-host snail control to prevent schistosomiasis transmission.
This operational manual is intended to facilitate the reintroduction of practices and protocols for use of molluscicides in the field in schistosomiasis control programmes. It is complemented by guidelines on the laboratory and field testing of the efficacy of molluscicides for schistosomiasis control (WHO, 2017 [in preparation]).
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Levels and Inequities
DHS Further Analysis Reports No. 110
This study shows large variations in maternal health indicators across high-priority counties in Kenya. Nairobi exceeds the national average on all maternal health indicators in this study, while other highpriority counties consist...ently are disadvantaged compared with Kenya as a whole in most maternal health indicators. Kisumu exceeds the national average in use of antenatal care, delivery in a health facility, and postnatal care, but not other indicators. Nakuru has fewer women with fertility risk and fewer women who report that the distance they must travel to reach a health facility is a problem.
This study identifies a number of inequities in maternal health indicators across socio-demographic characteristics in the high-priority counties—most in the distribution of delivery care and least in antenatal care. Inequities are also observed in fertility risk and postnatal care.
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Examining the needs of at‐risk youth in the Middle East and North Africa: A multi‐method landscape analysis and systematic literature review
Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2021. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.
Crisis Group’s early-warning Watch List id...entifies up to ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence. In these situations, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could generate stronger prospects for peace. The Watch List 2021 includes an Introduction, detailed conflict analyses and EU-targeted recommendations on Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iran & the Gulf, Libya, Mexico & Central America, Nagorno-Karabakh, Somalia, Thailand and Venezuela.
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Since the beginning of December a significant increase in the incidence of new cases has been observed particularly along the corridor towards the large urban center of Butembo (health zones of Butembo and Katwa) and beyond in the zone of Kayna health center located about 150 km from Goma. In additi...on, active outbreaks have emerged to the north, particularly in the health zones of Komanda and Oicha.
The third strategic response plan (SRP-3), which covers February through end July 2019, considers the salient points and recommendations made during the operational review of the implementation of the SRP-2 and other guidance based on lessons learned and risk analysis.
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In aquaculture, antibiotics have been used mainly for therapeutic purposes and as prophylactic agents. The contribution to antimicrobial resistance of antibiotics used in aquaculture is reviewed here, using a risk analysis framework. Some recommendations on responsible conduct in this context are pr...oposed, aimed at diminishing the threat of build up of antimicrobial resistance.
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Pandemics and outbreaks have differential impacts on women and men. From risk of exposure and biological susceptibility to infection to the social and economic implications, individuals’ experiences are likely to vary according to their biological and gender characteristics and... their interaction with other social determinants. Because of this, global and national strategic plans for COVID-19 preparedness and response must be grounded in strong gender analysis and must ensure meaningful participation of affected groups, including women and girls, in decision-making and implementation.
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Children living in humanitarian crises face an increased risk of abuse. While the threats of harm are increasing, the established systems in place to protect them are breaking down. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic and its impacts, vulnerable families suffer multiple hardships. Schools are closed an...d families have been pushed to the brink of poverty, sometimes having been denied the opportunity to protect and provide for their children.
The report provides an in-depth analysis of 19 Humanitarian Response Plans and Refugee Response Plans from 2019
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15 July 2021. This report describes the demographics, clinical presentation, clinical outcomes, and risk factors among people living with HIV (PLHIV) who have been hospitalized for suspected or confirmed COVID-19.
The specific objectives of the analysis were to:
describe the clinical char...acteristics and outcomes of PLHIV hospitalized for COVID-19
assess whether PLHIV hospitalized with COVID-19 were at increased risk of presenting with severe or critical illness at admission and were at increased risk of in-hospital death compared to individuals not infected with HIV
assess risk factors associated with severe or critical illness at hospital admission and of in-hospital death among PLHIV hospitalized for COVID-19.
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Public Health Risk Analysis and Surveillance
Public Health Surveillance Protocol Tuberculosis
This study aimed to analyze the geographical distribution of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to identify high-risk areas in space and time for the occurrence of cases and deaths in the indigenous population of Brazil. This is an ecological study carried out between 24 March and 26 October 20...20 whose units of analysis were the Special Indigenous Sanitary Districts. The Getis-Ord General G and Getis-Ord Gi* techniques were used to verify the spatial association of the phenomena and a retrospective space–time scan was performed. There were 32 041 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 471 deaths. The non-randomness of cases (z score = 5.40; P < 0.001) and deaths (z score = 3.83; P < 0.001) were confirmed. Hotspots were identified for cases and deaths in the north and midwest regions of Brazil. Sixteen high-risk space–time clusters were identified for the occurrence of cases with a higher RR = 21.23 (P < 0.001) and four risk clusters for deaths with a higher RR = 80.33 (P < 0.001). These clusters were identified from 22 May and were active until 10 October 2020. The results indicate critical areas in the indigenous territories of Brazil and contribute to better directing the actions of control of COVID-19 in this population.
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Child marriage and female genital mutilation (FGM) threaten the well-being of millions of girls around the world. Both have existed for generations, as manifestations of gender inequality, and have been propagated by discriminatory norms that devalue girls. In many countries where both child marriag...e and FGM are common, girls most at risk for each practice tend to share certain characteristics, such as low levels of education, rural residence, and living in poorer households. Yet, there are distinct differences in what drives each practice, and many communities in which one may be common, will not practice the other.
This report seeks to identify the extent to which child marriage and FGM co-exist. The intersection of these two practices – that is, the share of women who underwent FGM and were married in childhood – is reviewed over time, to determine whether girls’ likelihood of experiencing both practices has changed across generations. Lastly, the analysis identifies the characteristics that most commonly distinguish the girls who experience one practice from those who experience both.
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With some 134,073,166 people living in endemic communities at risk of infection, Nigeria is the most endemic country in Africa and requires preventive chemotherapy (PC) for a total of 26.3 million persons. The National Schistosomiasis Elimination Programme (NSCHEP), with the support of international... partners, has been implementing PC in Nigeria since 2009 and most recently will need to revise its current strategy (Additional file 1). For example, the new World Health Organization (WHO) guideline has six key recommendations that will dramatically change the implementation of schistosomiasis elimination in endemic countries [3]. However, its impact and programmatic implications will vary from country to country, hence the need for a country-specific analysis. This article discusses these recommendations with specific reference to the challenges and opportunities in Nigeria. We summarise the key pointers in Additional file 1: Box 1 against the six recommendations of the WHO 2022 guideline.
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This report analyses the intersection of HIV, COVID-19 and public debt in developing countries. The collision between COVID-19 and a crippling debt crisis have reversed decades of progress - putting present and future investments in health and HIV at risk. Pragmatic options to address the pandemic t...riad are proposed.
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Each year, ≈795 000 individuals in the United States experience a stroke, of which 87% (690 000) are ischemic and 185 000 are recurrent.1 Approximately 240 000 individuals experience a transient ischemic attack (TIA) each year.2 The risk of recurrent stroke or TIA is high but can be mitiga...ted with appropriate secondary stroke prevention. In fact, cohort studies have shown a reduction in recurrent stroke and TIA rates in recent years as secondary stroke prevention strategies have improved.3,4 A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of secondary stroke prevention therapies published from 1960 to 2009 showed a reduction in annual stroke recurrence from 8.7% in the 1960s to 5.0% in the 2000s, with the reduction driven largely by improved blood pressure (BP) control and use of antiplatelet therapy.5 The changes may have been influenced by changes in diagnostic criteria and differing sensitivities of diagnostic tests over the years.
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Introduction Community health workers (CHWs) are increasingly being tasked to prevent and manage cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its risk factors in underserved populations in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, little is known about the required training necessary for them to ...accomplish their role. This review aimed to evaluate the training of CHWs for the prevention and management of CVD and its risk factors in LMICs.
Methods A search strategy was developed in line with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, and five electronic databases (Medline, Global Health, ERIC, EMBASE and CINAHL) were searched to identify peer-reviewed studies published until December 2016 on the training of CHWs for prevention or control of CVD and its risk factors in LMICs. Study characteristics were extracted using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and quality assessed using Effective Public Health Practice Project’s Quality Assessment Tool. The search, data extraction and quality assessment were performed independently by two researchers.
Results The search generated 928 articles of which 8 were included in the review. One study was a randomised controlled trial, while the remaining were before–after intervention studies. The training methods included classroom lectures, interactive lessons, e-learning and online support and group discussions or a mix of two or more. All the studies showed improved knowledge level post-training, and two studies demonstrated knowledge retention 6 months after the intervention.
Conclusion The results of the eight included studies suggest that CHWs can be trained effectively for CVD prevention and management. However, the effectiveness of CHW trainings would likely vary depending on context given the differences between studies (eg, CHW demographics, settings and training programmes) and the weak quality of six of the eight studies. Well-conducted mixed-methods studies are needed to provide reliable evidence about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of training programmes for CHWs.
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The article "Cardiovascular Diseases" on Our World in Data provides an in-depth analysis of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), the leading cause of death globally. It examines CVD trends, such as the decline in mortality rates in high-income countries due to improved healthcare and lifestyle changes, wh...ile low- and middle-income countries experience rising CVD burdens. The article highlights major risk factors, including high blood pressure, obesity, smoking, and poor diet. It emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and access to treatment to reduce global disparities in CVD outcomes. The data-driven approach uses visualizations to illustrate the global impact and distribution of CVD.
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The article provides a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence and risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It highlights that COPD is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the region, with prevalence rates ranging from 1.7% ...to 24.8% and an average pooled prevalence of 8%. The analysis points out that smoking, exposure to biomass smoke, and age are key risk factors. The study emphasizes the need for improved diagnosis and awareness, as COPD often remains underdiagnosed and undertreated in SSA. The authors call for coordinated efforts from clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to address these issues and reduce exposure to preventable risk factors.
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The webpage from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) provides an analysis of air pollution as a significant global health risk. It details how air pollution contributes to severe health problems, including respiratory diseases and increased mortality rates. The site explains diffe...rent types of air pollution, such as ambient particulate matter and household air pollution, and their respective impacts on health. It emphasizes the global burden of disease caused by pollution, underscoring the importance of reducing exposure through policy and public health interventions to improve overall health outcomes.
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