This study, and similar studies in Kenya, Mozambique, Swaziland, Uganda, and Zambia is the outcome of close collaborative by a team in Swaziland, with technical and financial support from the UNAIDS Regional Support Team for Eastern and Southern Africa, UNAIDS Geneva, and the World Bank's Global HIV.../AIDS Program (Global AIDS Monitoring and Evaluation Team). The study entailed using existing data and collecting new data to better know the country's HIV epidemic, know the country HIV response and how funding was allocated, so as to improve the HIV response and strengthen prevention based on evidence on what works to prevent new infections.
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The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries i...n recent weeks.
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Annals of Global Health, 87(1), p.43. DOI: http://doi.org/10.5334/aogh.3269;
The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of mental health symptoms (anxiety, depression, and stress) in Bangladesh and the factors associated with these symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.
They found that ...about 64%, 87%, and 61% of the respondents in Bangladesh reported high levels of depression, anxiety, and stress, respectively and this varied between divisions (regions), more in women, those who self-quarantined, and those that experienced classical symptoms of COVID-19. We think there is a need for mental health support in this population to minimise the long term effects.
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Community-based strategies play a significant role in many health systems in low- and middle-income countries, especially in light of critical shortages in the health workforce. The term community health worker has been used to refer to volunteers and salaried, professional or lay health workers wit...h a wide range of training, experience, scope of practice and integration in health systems. In the context of this study, we use the term community-based practitioner (CBPs) to reflect the diverse nature of these cadres of health workers.
CBPs provide preventive, promotive, curative and palliative services across a range of areas, including reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, control of other endemic diseases, and noncommunicable diseases. Significant evidence has emerged over the past two decades on their effectiveness, which has triggered interest in the potential to use their services to expand access to care, in particular in rural and underserved areas where deployment and retention of more qualified health workers is problematic. Calls have been made to integrate CBP programmes in human resources and health strategies, and to scale up rapidly the extent and coverage of CBP initiatives.
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To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health and HIV expenditure, UNAIDS carried out a modelling study on fiscal space for health and HIV. From a sample of 28 countries, three countries—the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Jamaica, and Lesotho—were selected to capture health and HIV ...expenditure impacts across countries with especially marked differences in burdens of disease (including HIV prevalence), HIV donor dependency, level of economic development, and geographic location. While the three-country sample is too small to permit findings to be generalized to other countries, these analyses are useful for informing UNAIDS’ work to identify some policy positions to minimize the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the HIV response.
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INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health systems around the world. The objectives of this study are to estimate the overall effect of the pandemic on essential health service use and outcomes in Mexico, describe observed and predicted trends in services over 24 months, and to estimat...e the number of visits lost through December 2020.
METHODS: We used health information system data for January 2019 to December 2020 from the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS), which provides health services for more than half of Mexico's population-65 million people. Our analysis includes nine indicators of service use and three outcome indicators for reproductive, maternal and child health and non-communicable disease services. We used an interrupted time series design and linear generalised estimating equation models to estimate the change in service use and outcomes from April to December 2020. Estimates were expressed using average marginal effects on the risk ratio scale.
RESULTS: The study found that across nine health services, an estimated 8.74 million patient visits were lost in Mexico. This included a decline of over two thirds for breast and cervical cancer screenings (79% and 68%, respectively), over half for sick child visits and female contraceptive services, approximately one-third for childhood vaccinations, diabetes, hypertension and antenatal care consultations, and a decline of 10% for deliveries performed at IMSS. In terms of patient outcomes, the proportion of patients with diabetes and hypertension with controlled conditions declined by 22% and 17%, respectively. Caesarean section rate did not change.
CONCLUSION: Significant disruptions in health services show that the pandemic has strained the resilience of the Mexican health system and calls for urgent efforts to resume essential services and plan for catching up on missed preventive care even as the COVID-19 crisis continues in Mexico.
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PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ...one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu...re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
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Introduction: Considering the global prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a vaccine is being developed to control the disease as a complementary solution to hygiene measures—and better, in social terms, than social distancing. Given that a vaccine will eventually be produced, informa...tion will be needed to support a potential campaign to promote vaccination.
Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the variables affecting the likelihood of refusal and indecision toward a vaccine against COVID-19 and to determine the acceptance of the vaccine for different scenarios of effectiveness and side effects.
Materials and Methods: A multinomial logistic regression method based on the Health Belief Model was used to estimate the current methodology, using data obtained by an online anonymous survey of 370 respondents in Chile.
Results: The results indicate that 49% of respondents were willing to be vaccinated, with 28% undecided or 77% of individuals who would potentially be willing to be inoculated. The main variables that explained the probability of rejection or indecision were associated with the severity of COVID-19, such as, the side effects and effectiveness of the vaccine; perceived benefits, including immunity, decreased fear of contagion, and the protection of oneself and the environment; action signals, such as, responses from ones' family and the government, available information, and specialists' recommendations; and susceptibility, including the contagion rate per 1,000 inhabitants and relatives with COVID-19, among others. Our analysis of hypothetical vaccine scenarios revealed that individuals preferred less risky vaccines in terms of fewer side effects, rather than effectiveness. Additionally, the variables that explained the indecision toward or rejection of a potential COVID-19 vaccine could be used in designing public health policies.
Conclusions: We discovered that it is necessary to formulate specific, differentiated vaccination-promotion strategies for the anti-vaccine and undecided groups based on the factors that explain the probability of individuals refusing or expressing hesitation toward vaccination.
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A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet Vol.399 Issue 10341 p.2129-2154
Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 s...trategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance.
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Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global medical and veterinary importance. As efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis as a public health problem and interrupt transmission gather momentum, the potential zoonotic risk posed by livestock Schistosoma species via viable hybridisation in s...ub-Saharan Africa have been largely overlooked. We aimed to investigate the prevalence, distribution, and multi-host, multiparasite transmission cycle of Haematobium group schistosomiasis in Senegal, West Africa.
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Background: Primary health care (PHC) is a driving force for advancing towards universal health coverage (UHC). PHC-oriented health systems bring enormous benefits but require substantial financial investments. Here, we aim to present measures for PHC investments and project the associated resource ...needs. Methods: This modelling study analysed data from 67 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Recognising the variation in PHC services among countries, we propose three measures for PHC, with different scope for included interventions and system strengthening. Measure 1 is centred on public health interventions and outpatient care; measure 2 adds general inpatient care; and measure 3 further adds cross-sectoral activities. Cost components included in each measure were based on the Declaration of Astana, informed by work delineating PHC within health accounts, and finalised through an expert and country validation meeting. We extracted the subset of PHC costs for each measure from WHO’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) price tag for the 67 LMICs, and projected the associated health impact. Estimates of financial resource need, health workforce, and outpatient visits are presented as PHC investment guide posts for LMICs.
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This Urban Flood Risk Handbook: Assessing Risk and Identifying Interventions is a roadmap for conducting an urban flood risk assessment in any city in the world. It includes practical guidance for a flood risk assessment project, covering the key hazard and risk modeling stages as well as the evalua...tion of different flood-mitigating infrastructure intervention options and management of the project. The Handbook has been developed based on lessons learned from implementing urban flood risk assessments around the world in a diversity of contexts. It is intended for a wide variety of practitioners: project managers, city officials, and anyone else interested in conducting a strategic study of a city's flood risk and developing potential solutions for it. We expect this Handbook tocontribute to the understanding of urban flood risk, make this specialized knowledge more accessible to a wider public, and support the process of building cities that are not only capable of withstanding floods but also provide safe, inclusive, and sustainable environments for all their residents.
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There has been no systematic comparison of how the policy response to past infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics was funded. This study aims to collate and analyse funding for the Ebola epidemic and Zika outbreak between 2014 and 2019 in order to understand the shortcomings in funding reporting... and suggest improvements. Methods: Data were collected via a literature review and analysis of financial reporting databases, including both amounts donated and received. Funding information from three financial databases was analysed: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Development Assistance for Health database, the Georgetown Infectious Disease Atlas and the United Nations Financial Tracking Service. A systematic literature search strategy was devised and applied to seven databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, HMIC, Global Health, Scopus, Web of Science and EconLit. Funding information was extracted from articles meeting the eligibility criteria and measures were taken to avoid double counting. Funding was collated, then amounts and purposes were compared within, and between, data sources.
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The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study has published disability-adjusted life year (DALY) data
at both regional and country levels from 1990 to 2010. Concurrently, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
(IHME) has published estimates of development assistance for health (DAH) at th...e country-disease level for this
same period of time.
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To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health and HIV expenditure, UNAIDS carried out a modelling study on fiscal space for health and HIV. From a sample of 28 countries, three countries—the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Jamaica, and Lesotho—were selected to capture health and HIV ...expenditure impacts across countries with especially marked differences in burdens of disease (including HIV prevalence), HIV donor dependency, level of economic development, and geographic location. While the three-country sample is too small to permit findings to be generalized to other countries, these analyses are useful for informing UNAIDS’ work to identify some policy positions to minimize the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the HIV response.
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Between 2012 and 2016, development assistance for HIV/AIDS decreased by 20·0%; domestic financing is therefore critical to sustaining the response to HIV/AIDS. To understand whether domestic resources could fill the financing gaps created by declines in development assistance, we aimed to track spe...nding on HIV/AIDS and estimated the potential for governments to devote additional domestic funds to HIV/AIDS.
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he global architecture for providing development assistance for health (DAH)
has become increasing complex in the last decade, with many new funding agencies entering the health sector.
This study presents a detailed picture of European Union (EU) and EU member state originating DAH
between 2006 ...and 2009; with a sp
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Asthma is the most common noncommunicable disease in children, and among the most common in adults. According to the most recent estimates from the Global Asthma Network Phase I study, around one in 10 children and adults have symptoms of asthma and one in 20 school-aged children have severe asthma ...symptoms, with marked variations in prevalence and in prevalence trends between countries and regions of the world. The Global Burden of Disease Study estimated that asthma caused the loss of 21.6 million healthy years of life (disability-adjusted life years) and 461 069 deaths in 2019. Approximately 90% of the asthma burden of disease is borne by people living low and middle income countries (LMICs). Some countries report very high (up to 90%) rates of uncontrolled asthma. While the prevalence of asthma is highest in countries with a high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), death rates from asthma are highest in countries with low and lower middle incomes.
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Time has seen management for Cystic Fibrosis (CF) advance drastically, most recently in the development of the disease-modifying triple combination therapy ivacaftor/tezacaftor/elexacaftor. There is currently limited evidence regarding both the global epidemiology of CF and access to this transforma...tive therapy - and therefore where needs are not being met. Therefore, this study aims to define gaps in access to CF treatment. The results show that a significant CF patient burden exists in countries where disease-modifying drugs are unavailable, and final figures are likely underestimates. This analysis shows the potential to improve rates of diagnosis and treatment for CF, so a higher percentage of patients receive the most effective triple combination treatment.
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