Modelling the health impacts of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19 Module 1
Several epidemiological models have been created to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 on morbidity and mortality from conditions other than COVI...D-19 illness. This guide presents models that have been used to assess these indirect impacts. The effects have been studied in various settings, using a variety of models.
The guide is intended for people who need to understand what the models say, their construction and their underlying assumptions, or need to use models and their outcomes for planning and programme development and to support policy decisions for a country or region.
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- Module 1: Understanding modelling approaches for sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health, and nutrition
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a wide range of documented effects. It directly causes death and disability for some people infected. However, disruption to... essential health services, resources allocated to mitigation and therefore away from essential health service delivery, and the overall impact on the economy and society must also be considered within the response to COVID-19. Understanding the magnitude of all of these effects is an essential part of developing mitigation polices.
Several epidemiological models have been created to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 on morbidity and mortality from conditions other than COVID-19 illness. This guide presents models that have been used to assess these indirect impacts. The effects have been studied in various settings, using a variety of models.
The guide is intended for people who need to understand what the models say, their construction and their underlying assumptions, or need to use models and their outcomes for planning and programme development and to support policy decisions for a country or region.
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New research exposes how women and children are disproportionally affected by climate migration, which puts them at greater risk of gender-based violence, child labour and exploitation.
Governments must ensure the safety and protection of women and girls in climate emergencies, including the safe... and equal access to basic services, food, and healthcare before, during, and after disasters. Women must also be included in decision making in their communities so they can lead on resilience building and address gendered issues of migration and displacement.
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This report is not a formal evaluation, but rather a synthesis of the experiences, observations, and recommendations of a large group of experienced post-disaster shelter and recovery experts gathered from interviews, surveys, and direct discussions, and information derived from a desk review of the... wide variety of available evaluations and reports.
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To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health and HIV expenditure, UNAIDS carried out a modelling study on fiscal space for health and HIV. From a sample of 28 countries, three countries—the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Jamaica, and Lesotho—were selected to capture health and HIV ...expenditure impacts across countries with especially marked differences in burdens of disease (including HIV prevalence), HIV donor dependency, level of economic development, and geographic location. While the three-country sample is too small to permit findings to be generalized to other countries, these analyses are useful for informing UNAIDS’ work to identify some policy positions to minimize the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the HIV response.
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English Analysis on World and 9 other countries about Food and Nutrition, Drought and Other; published on 13 Oct 2021 by ECHO, FAO and 3 other organizations
From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2021, extreme weather events have affected at least 139.2 million people and killed at least 17,242 people in at least 433 unique events. These figures are certainly an underestimate, as they do not include estimates of numbers of people affected ...by extreme temperatures, or mortality during drought events.
One dimension of the compound risk of COVID-19 and climate extremes was the additional challenge of preparing for and responding to disasters during the pandemic, such as the constraints of physical distancing during evacuations and response operations.
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A study conducted by the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on older persons both globally and in the African region. Although overall the region’s population is younger relative to many other world regions, the WHO AFRO region ...has a population just over 62 million older people and is ageing rapidly, with the number of older people expected to triple in the next three decades (Aboderin et al., 2020).
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The COVID-19 pandemic has put significant pressure on health systems all around the world. The drastic measures established to contain its spread are creating serious impediments to economic activity (including agrifood systems) and, consequently, to livelihoods and food security and nutrition.
This report shows that frontier agriculture is a viable complement to conventional agriculture, particularly in Africa and countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV).
his sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island D...eveloping States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The two reports’ combined findings provide, for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends.
Available in English, French, Arabic, Spanish
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Europe and Central Asia Economic Update.
The Russian Federation’s war with Ukraine has triggered a catastrophic humanitarian crisis and threatened the stability of geopolitical relations. Economic output in the Europe and Central Asia region is forecast to contract by more than 4.1% in 2022—the... second major shock and regional recession in two years. Moreover, the war has added to mounting concerns of a sharp global growth slowdown.
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More than three months since the start of the war in Ukraine, people globally are facing a cost-of-living crisis not seen in more than a generation, with escalating price shocks in the global food, energy and fertilizer markets - in a world already grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic and climate ch...ange.
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Economic conditions in Syria are projected to continue to be mired by prolonged armed conflict, turmoil in Lebanon and Turkey, COVID-19, and the war in Ukraine. Subject to extraordinarily high uncertainty, we project that Syria’s real GDP will contract by 2.6 percent in 2022 (to US$ 15.5 billion i...n constant 2015 prices) after declining by 2.1 percent in 2021. Risks to the growth outlook are significant and tilted to the downside.
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The war in Ukraine has had devasting impact on women and girls
worldwide, widening gender gaps and increasing rates of food insecurity, malnutrition and energy poverty. This brief reviews the available evidence of that impact, recommending urgent attention to its consequences for women and girls. I...ts findings underline the global impacts on gender equality and women’s rights that have been compounded by climate change, environmental degradation and the COVID-19 pandemic,
demonstrating further entrenched inequalities and human rights violations.
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Assessment in English on South Sudan about Education, Food and Nutrition, Drought, Epidemic and more; published on 22 Jul 2022 by IOM
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a double shock - health and economic. As of March 1, 2021, COVID-19 has cost more than 2.5 million lives and triggered an economic recession surpassing any economic downturn since World War II.
Part I of this paper explores the impact of this current macro-fisc...al outlook on the three primary sources of health spending. Drawing on experiences from previous economic crises, scenario analyses suggest a fall in government per capita spending on health in 2021 and 2022 unless governments make bold choices to increase the share of health in general government spending.
Part II of the paper discusses policy options to meet the spending needs in health. These options encompass strategies to make fiscal adjustments work and channel funds where they are most needed, as well as policies to stabilize the balance sheets of social health insurance (SHI) schemes. The paper explains how the health sector can play an active role in expanding fiscal space, contributing to tax reforms, most importantly pro-health taxes, and mobilizing and absorbing external financing, including debt relief.
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To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health and HIV expenditure, UNAIDS carried out a modelling study on fiscal space for health and HIV. From a sample of 28 countries, three countries—the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Jamaica, and Lesotho—were selected to capture health and HIV ...expenditure impacts across countries with especially marked differences in burdens of disease (including HIV prevalence), HIV donor dependency, level of economic development, and geographic location. While the three-country sample is too small to permit findings to be generalized to other countries, these analyses are useful for informing UNAIDS’ work to identify some policy positions to minimize the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the HIV response.
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World Humanitarian Data and Trends presents global- and country-level data-and-trend analysis about humanitarian
crises and assistance. Its purpose is to consolidate this information and present it in an accessible way, providing policymakers, researchers and humanitarian practitioners with an evid...ence base to support humanitarian policy decisions and provide context for operational decisions.
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