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- Module 1: Understanding modelling approaches for sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health, and nutrition
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a wide range of documented effects. It directly causes death and disability for some people infected. However, disruption to
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essential health services, resources allocated to mitigation and therefore away from essential health service delivery, and the overall impact on the economy and society must also be considered within the response to COVID-19. Understanding the magnitude of all of these effects is an essential part of developing mitigation polices.
Several epidemiological models have been created to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 on morbidity and mortality from conditions other than COVID-19 illness. This guide presents models that have been used to assess these indirect impacts. The effects have been studied in various settings, using a variety of models.
The guide is intended for people who need to understand what the models say, their construction and their underlying assumptions, or need to use models and their outcomes for planning and programme development and to support policy decisions for a country or region.
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UNAIDS 2018 / Guidance
Guidance for policy-makers, and people living with, at risk of or affected by HIV
UNAIDS 2017 / Reference
Generating evidence for policy and action on HIV and social protection
The sustainable development goals and the HIV response
UNAIDS (Joint United Nations Programme on HIVAIDS)
(2019)
C2
Stories of putting people at the centre
Accessed: 20.11.2019
English Analysis on World about Agriculture, Climate Change and Environment, Epidemic and more; published on 15 Dec 2021 by FAO and UNICEF
Nigeria: Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS)
recommended
National Malaria Elimination Programme Federal Ministry of Health National Population Commission, National Bureau of Statistics Federal Republic of Nigeria , et al.
World Health Organisation (WHO), USAID, The Global Fund, et al.
(2016)
C_WHO
In 2018, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in South Sudan must respond to the highest levels of food insecurity ever recorded in the country. To address this challeng
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e, FAO revised its multiyear Emergency Livelihood Response Programme (ELRP) to enable rapid food production among the most vulnerable communities, protect their livelihoods and reduce dependency on humanitarian aid while building their resilience.
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This plan guides FAO’s response to prevent the levels of food insecurity and malnutrition from worsening. It sets out key emergency agricultural livelihood interventions to be implemented within the framework of the 2018 Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP)
Strengthening resilient agricultural livelihoods
Level 3 responses are activated in the most complex and challenging humanitarian emergencies, when the highest level of mobilization is required across the humanitarian system. Even before the conflict escalated, the country suffered high levels of p
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overty, food insecurity, undernutrition and malnutrition, water shortages and land degradation. Yemenis are also facing armed conflict, displacement, risk of famine and disease outbreaks.
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Recent forecasts by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have indicated a risk of locust invasion in West Africa from June 2020. From East Africa, some swarms could reac
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h the eastern part of the Sahel and continue westwards from Chad to Mauritania.
Surveillance and control teams will be mobilized across the region with a focus on Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and the Niger, and extended to Senegal. Countries such as Cameroon, the Gambia and Nigeria are also on watch in the event that desert locust spreads to these highly acute food-insecure countries. Since the region could be threatened in the coming months, FAO is strongly encouraging no regret investments in preparedness and anticipatory action to control swarms and safeguard livelihoods, given already high levels of acute food insecurity. Therefore, cost estimates for preparedness, anticipatory action and rapid response have been assessed.
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Previous crises, such as the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa in 2014, indicate the direct impact movement restrictions and disease containment efforts have on food availability, access, utilization and violence – particularly gender-based violence (GBV). The importance of maintaining and
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upscaling food security interventions for the most vulnerable populations, alongside the health sector’s efforts to avert disease spread, is therefore undeniable. The COVID-19 outbreak in South Sudan threatens to paralyze an already fragile food system and negatively impact more than 6.5 million people in South Sudan who remain vulnerable. At the same time, the core national capacities for prevention, preparedness and response for public health events is limited, and the healthcare system has been weakened by years of conflict, poor governance and low investments.
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English Analysis on World and 19 other countries about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and Drought; published on 13 Jan 2021 by FAO
The situation in South Sudan has proven to be unpredictable and volatile. New hotspots of violent conflict and civil unrest have continued to emerge and levels of severe acute food insecurity have become progressively worse. In addition to years of fighting and political instability, the country fac
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es natural hazards, disease and pests, such as the desert locust, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Collectively, these risks have had and continue to have a catastrophic impact on the lives and livelihoods of South Sudanese, the majority of whom rely on agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries as their main source of income.
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This survey of agricultural livelihoods and food security in the context of the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other shocks was undertaken during February 2021 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
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Nations (FAO) in 1 380 villages within 129 districts of 20 provinces, covering all agro-ecological zones of Afghanistan.
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This report sets out the compelling case for repurposing harmful agricultural producer support to reverse this situation, by optimizing the use of scarce public resources, strengthening economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, and ultimately driving a food systems transformation that can suppor
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t global sustainable development commitments.
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