This policy brief examines the implications of COVID-19 and the government’s preventative measure for political stability,9 especially in the short to medium term. It argues that in the short term the disease and the preventative measures could make the country less vulnerable to organised political violence and more vulnerable to riots. In the medium and long term, however, vulnerability to both types of violence could increase, depending on the capacity of political forces to instigate and manage conflict and on their willingness to work together.