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We investigate whether and to what extent Chinese development finance affects infant mortality, combining 92 demographic and health surveys (DHS) for a maximum of 53 countries and almost 55,000 sub-national locations over the 2002-2014 period. We address causality by instrumenting aid with a set of
...
interacted variables. Variation over
time results from indicators that measure the availability of funding in a given year. Cross-sectional variation results from a sub-national region’s “probability to receive aid.” Controlled for this probability in tandem with fixed effects for country-years and provinces, the interactions of these variables form powerful and excludable instruments. Our results show that Chinese aid increases infant mortality at sub-national scales, but decreases mortality at the countrylevel. In several tests, we show that this stark contrast likely results from aid being fungible within recipient countries.
more
To realize Agenda 2030, aid agencies, private philanthropies, and their partners in the Global South need better data to monitor how official development finance (ODF) dollars advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and avoid missing the mark. In this report, we summarize the results of a n
...
ovel effort to tag and analyze 2.7 million ODF projects between 2010-2021 using machine learning to understand their contributions to the SDG thematic areas at a goal
and target level. This time frame is instructive: it compares the last six years of the Millennium Development Goals era and the first six years of the new SDG age, from early optimism to later uncertainty about the resilience of the agenda to drive collective commitments amid unanticipated global shocks.
more
Insufficient funding is hindering the achievement of malaria elimination targets in Africa, despite the pressing need for increased investment in malaria control. While Western donors attribute their inaction to financial constraints, the global health community has limited knowledge of China’s ex
...
panding role in malaria prevention. This knowledge gap arises from the fact that China does not consistently report its foreign development assistance activities to established aid transparency initiatives. Our work focuses on identifying Chinese-funded malaria control projects throughout Africa and linking them to official data on malaria prevalence. By doing so, we aim to shed light on China’s contributions to malaria control efforts, analysing their investments and assessing their impact. This would provide valuable insights into the development of effective financing mechanisms for future malaria control in Africa.
more
Tracking development assistance for health from India to low- and middle-income countries, 2009–2020
Development assistance for health (DAH) is an important source of financing for health for many low-income and some middle-income countries. Most DAH has predominantly been contributed by high-income countries. However, in the context of economic progress and changing global priorities, DAH contribu
...
tions from countries of the Global South such as India have gained importance. In this paper, we estimate DAH contributed by India between 2009 and 2020.
more
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that
the world was not well prepared to respond
to an infectious disease threat of this magnitude. Countries across all socioeconomic and development categories have struggled
to implement effective national responses. Substantial amounts of additional investmen
...
t are required to support the development of country capacities to prevent, detect and respond to both existing and emerging
infectious disease threats. Prior research efforts have estimated that between US$96 and $204billion is required, globally, to
advance country-level health security capacities, with US$63–131billion needed over a 3-year period. Given the substantial costs
of ongoing COVID-19 response, estimated to
be over US$12.5trillion through 2024, and an estimated 12.1–22.7million excess deaths, globally, due to COVID-19 as of January 2022,
the importance and potential return on investment of such upfront investments in capacity building are more evident than ever before.
more
The faltering of progress towards malaria elimination follows a plateauing in international financing since 2010. Despite calls for increased international financing, this will be hard to achieve. Both developed country donors and developing countries with malaria face severe fiscal constraints in e
...
xpanding malaria funding in the next few years. Simply exhorting countries to spend more is unlikely to be successful, just as the Abuja declaration was not, and the developing countries with most malaria burden suffer from weaker economic growth and less capacity to increase domestic financing.
more
Countries that are reforming their health systems to progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) need to consider total resource requirements over the long term to plan for the implementation and sustainable financing of UHC. However, there is a lack of detailed conceptualization as to how the
...
current health financing mechanisms interplay across health system elements. Thus, we aimed to generate evidence on how to utilize resources from different sources of funds in Africa.
more
Strengthening resilient and sustainable systems for health (RSSH) is central to the Global Fund’s strategy, however questions persist about the Global Fund’s role in the health systems strengthening space, and the extent to which investments are designed to achieve strengthening objectives, or j
...
ust fill in gaps in the system. This paper reports on findings from the Prospective Country Evaluations (PCE), a multi-country multi-year evaluation of Global Fund support.
more
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in
five countries with available household expenditure data: Belarus, Mexico, Peru, R
...
ussia, and Viet Nam. In Mexico and Peru, we also conducted an analysis of drivers of change in CHE in 2020 using publicly available data.
more
The global pandemic response has typically followed
cycles of panic followed by neglect. We are now, once
again, in a phase of neglect, leaving the world highly
vulnerable to massive loss of life and economic shocks
from natural or human-made epidemics and pandemics.
Quantifying the size of the
...
losses caused by large-scale
outbreaks is challenging because the epidemiological
and economic research in this field is still at an early
stage. Research on the 1918 influenza H1N1 pandemic
and recent epidemics and pandemics has shown a range
of estimated losses (panel).
more
In contrast to bilateral aid, aid disbursed from
multilateral institutions increased significantly at the onset
of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, at a time when a coherent
and effective multilateral response is needed most, the
COVID-19 pandemic revealed a shifting landscape of donor
agencies that
...
struggle with basic functions, such as crossnational coordination. While multilaterals are uniquely
positioned to transcend national priorities and respond
to pandemics, functionally we find official development
assistance (ODA) from these entities may increasingly
mimic the attributes of bilateral aid. We explore three
important, but not comprehensive, attributes of aid leading
up to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) earmarking,
(2) donor concentration and (3) aid modality.
more
Over the past decade, countries in the African region experienced slow progress in mobilizing resources for health while facing continued challenges. In their revised estimates published in 2017, Stenberg et al., developed two costs scenarios, termed progress and ambitious, aimed at strengthening co
...
mprehensive health service delivery to achieve SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries (Stenberg et al., 2017). Out of the 47 countries in the WHO African region only eight, on average, met the recommended threshold of spending a minimum of US$ 249 per capita on health during the period from 2012 to 2020. In 2020, this achievement was observed in only five countries while the remaining countries spent less than US$ 249 per capita, with health expenditures ranging from US$ 16.4 to US$ 236.6, highlighting significant disparities across the region.
more
In 2021, global life expectancy at birth was 74 years whereas in sub-Saharan Africa it was 66 years. Yet in that same year, $92 per person was spent on health in sub- Saharan Africa, which is roughly one fifth of what the next lowest geographic region—North Africa and Middle East—spent ($379). T
...
he challenges to healthy lives in sub-Saharan Africa are many while health spending remains low. This study uses gross domestic product, government, and health spending data to give a more complete picture of the patterns of future health spending in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed trends in growth in gross domestic product, government health spending, development assistance for health and the prioritization of health in national spending to compare countries within sub-Saharan Africa and globally.
more
One approach to development assistance for health, or health aid, emphasizes the ex ante selection of cost-effective health interventions, an approach that began with the World Development Report (1993) on Investing in Health and has since been adopted by the Effective Altruism community. But just h
...
ow much of health aid is cost-effective? In this paper, we examine projects in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Creditor Reporting System, the standard dataset that measures and characterizes development assistance for health, for the
years 2019 to 2021, and count the number of projects that refer to interventions from a list of highly cost-effective interventions as defined by the Disease Control Priorities Project, third edition. This exploratory quantitative analysis indicates that 61% of projects used a key word/phrase of a costeffective intervention. There were 11.9 interventions mapped per project on average. There is little evidence that donors tailor the set of interventions to country income levels by cost-effectiveness.
Policymakers may benefit from reviewing the full portfolio of interventions covered by domestic and external resources.
more
The relative priority received by issues
in global health agendas is subjected to impressionistic
claims in the absence of objective methods of assessment
of priority. To build an approach for conducting structured
assessments of comparative priority health issues receive,
we expand the public
...
arenas model (2021) and offer a
framework for future assessments of health issue priority
in global and national health agendas.
more
When we presented our analysis of Germany’s role in
global health in 2017 at an event in Berlin, Richard
Horton, the Editor-in-Chief of The Lancet, asked only
half-jokingly whether we could expect Germany to finally
shrug off the habitus of the “reluctant leader” and “step
up”. Back t
...
hen, the entire team of authors were hesitant
to use the term leadership as a broad label. We decided to
highlight areas where leadership could be observed, but
refrained from using it in the title of our previous study.
7 years later, after a devastating global pandemic, notable
political changes in Germany, and amid a substantially
changed global health landscape, we aim to analyse
Germany’s role in global health once more.
more
Financing Global Health 2023: The Future of Health Financing in the Post-Pandemic Era
Apeagyei A.E., Dieleman J.L., Leach-Kemon K., et al.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
(2024)
CC
IHME’s Financing Global Health report provides an overview of health spending around the world, with a special focus on investments in health in low- and middle-income countries. The report examines how this funding for health is changing each year and forecasts how it may change in the future. Fi
...
nancing Global Health examines where money for health originates and what health issues it funds.
This year, Financing Global Health 2023 looks at how interest payments on loans that many countries took out during the COVID-19 pandemic to keep their economies afloat and their people protected are now straining health budgets. It also details how development partners’ investments in health in low- and middle-income countries – development assistance for health – have changed since reaching historic levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, dropping by $19.4 billion between 2021 and 2023, from $84.0 billion to $64.6 billion.
more
As a recognized win–win-win approach to international debt relief, Debt-to-Health(D2H)has successfully translated debt repayments into investments in health-related projects. Although D2H has experienced modifications and periodic suspension, it has been playing an increasingly important role in r
...
esource mobilization in public health, particularly for low-and middle-income countries deep in debt.
more
Nearly 90 years after Simon Kuznets first introduced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the limited purpose of measuring economic growth (by measuring the monetary value of all local goods and services within a given period of time), calls continue to mount for decision-makers to stop using GDP and it
...
s derivate, Gross National Income (GNI), for purposes far beyond their original design. This is particularly true in the case of the development assistance architecture, where these indicators are used as proxies to measure a nation’s overall well-being and, in some cases, eligibility for external funding. The GNI-based classification system has recently even been suggested by some Member States as a criterion to access to medicines in the new WHO Pandemic Agreement.
more
This paper presents a bibliometric analysis of the literature on private health aid and official health assistance between 2000 and 2022. It provides an overview of the sites and themes in the literature pertaining to development assistance in health, and collates the significant policy recommendati
...
ons presented therein. Several crucial findings emerge from the bibliometric analysis: 44.2 percent of the 489 papers/articles assessed focused on lower-middle-income countries, while 37.7 percent focused on low-income countries. However, authors affiliated with institutes and organisations from lower-middle- and low-income countries contributed merely 15.5 percent and 11.8 percent, respectively, of the papers assessed. Most (72.7 percent) were written by authors from highmiddle-
and high-income countries. Additionally, despite non-governmental
organisations, philanthropies, and private businesses constituting about 20 percent of development assistance donors, a mere 4 percent of all papers focused on these entities.
more
