This web application serves as a planning tool for COVID-19 outbreaks in communities across the world. It implements a simple SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with additional categories for individuals exposed to the virus that are not yet infectious, severely sick people in need of hospit...alization, people in critical condition, and a fatal category.
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Version 15.4.2020
Mögliche Szenarien mit unterschiedlicher Daür und Wirkungsstärke wesentlicher Gegenmaßnahmen
2020-04-21 Rechenmodell Verlauf Deutschland
Reduzierende Massnahmen
Expertenparameter Infektionsverlauf
Krankenhausaufenthalt
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, as of 10-June-20 EuroMOMONetwork, Bulletin, Week 23, 2020 Worldometer
The purpose of this work is to estimate potential COVID-19 case burdens in each African nation considering various social distancing interventions. Given current trends in case burden, the model estimates the potential resource needs that would be needed under different scenarios. The model is for p...lanning purposes and is based on current understanding and the most up-to-date assumptions. Results reported here are not forecasts but scenarios that may unfold given the assumptions about social-distancing and population health.
You can download scenarios for North Africa; Middle Africa; West Africa, East Africa and South Africa
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19 April 2020
To contain the spread of COVID-19 and to keep infections at a manageable level, many countries have instituted lockdowns and social distancing. In India, a nationwide 21-day lockdown was announced with effect from 25 March 2020. This lockdown is expected to avert a sudden and large in...crease in the number of infections in the short term. Additionally, interventions such as social distancing and isolation of infected individuals over several months could reduce peak infections. Interventions such as frequent handwashing, reduced mass gatherings, contact tracing, and quarantines could slow transmission and reduce overall infections.
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In einem häufig verwendeten Modellierungskonzept, den so genannten SEIR-Modellen,1-3 wird die Bevölke-rung in verschiedene Gruppen unterteilt, und die Dy-namik der Infektionen und Erkrankungen wird über eine Modellierung der Übergänge zwischen diesen Gruppen nachgebildet. Die Buchstaben S...EIR stehen für die empfänglichen (susceptible), latent infizierten (exposed – infiziert, aber noch nicht infektiös), symp-tomatisch infektiösen (infectious) und schließlich ver-storbenen oder genesenen (recovered) Anteile der Be-völkerung
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This calculator implements a classical infectious disease model — SEIR (Susceptible → Exposed → Infected → Removed), an idealized model of spread still used in frontlines of research e.g.
ESTUDIO ENE-COVID19: Segunda Ronda del Estudio Nacional de Sero-Epidemiología de la Infección por SARS-CoV-2 en España; Informe preliminar 3 de Junio de 2020 Informe nº 33. Análisis de los casos de COVID-19 notificados a la RENAVE hasta el 10 de mayo en España a 29 de mayo de 2020. Equipo COVI...D-19. RENAVE. CNE. CNM (ISCIII) Actualización nº 143. Enfermedad por el coronavirus (COVID-19). 21.06.2020 Sistema de Vigilancia de la mortalidad diaria (MoMo), accessed: 23 June, 2020 Instituto Nacional de Estadística: Población por comunidades, edad (grupos quinquenales), Españoles/Extranjeros, Sexo y Año Own calculations
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The Lancet Global Health Published:May 12, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30229-1
BMJ Global Health2020;5:e002914. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002914
The evidence produced in mathematical models plays a key role in shaping policy decisions in pandemics. A key question is therefore how well pandemic models relate to their implementation contexts. Drawing on the cases of Ebola and in...fluenza, we map how sociological and anthropological research contributes in the modelling of pandemics to consider lessons for COVID-19. We show how models detach from their implementation contexts through their connections with global narratives of pandemic response, and how sociological and anthropological research can help to locate models differently. This potentiates multiple models of pandemic response attuned to their emerging situations in an iterative and adaptive science. We propose a more open approach to the modelling of pandemics which envisages the model as an intervention of deliberation in situations of evolving uncertainty. This challenges the ‘business-as-usual’ of evidence-based approaches in global health by accentuating all science, within and beyond pandemics, as ‘emergent’ and ‘adaptive’.
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This report presents three scenarios on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa using economic growth forecasts, mortality and efforts to ameliorate impact through social grants. Likely effects are examined on per capita income, poverty and the attainment of selected Sustainable Development Goals targets. ...Africa’s development trajectory has suffered a severe setback, with extreme poverty rising in all the scenarios. The pandemic threatens Africa in several ways, and the report provides policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience.
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For COVID-19, as for many infectious diseases, the true level of transmission is frequently underestimated because a substantial proportion of people with the infection are undetected either because they are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and thus typically fail to present at healthcare fac...ilities. There may also be neglected or under-served segments of the population who are less likely to access healthcare or testing. Under-detection of cases may be exacerbated during an epidemic, when testing capacity may be limited and restricted to people with severe cases and priority risk groups (such as frontline healthcare workers, elderly people and people with comorbidities). Cases may also be misdiagnosed and attributed to other diseases with similar clinical presentation, such as influenza.
Differences in mortality between groups of people and countries are important proxy indicators of relative risk of death that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This document is intended to help countries estimate CFR and, if possible, IFR, as appropriately and accurately as possible, while accounting for possible biases in their estimation
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Schlussfolgerungen auf Basis der umfassendsten Erhebungen zu nationalen und regionalen Infektionsraten November 2020
Unsere Infoboxen zeigen das Ansteckungs-, Erkrankungs- und Sterberisiko für Menschen verschiedenen Alters, wenn sie in Kontakt mit dem Influenza- oder Corona-Virus kommen (z.B. durch engen Kontakt mit einem infizierten Haushaltsmitglied) und die Risiken eines engen Kontaktes für Menschen verschied...enen Alters, wenn man selbst mit dem Influenza- oder Corona-Virus infiziert ist.
Zu jeder Infobox finden Sie im Begleittext Hintergrundinformationen zur Erstellung und zu den dahinter liegenden Daten.
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ABSTRACT
Objectives: We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations.
Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from ...the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021.
The Lancet. 10 March 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3.
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