Report of the Global Thematic Consultation on Population Dynamics
The UCL–Lancet Commission on Migration and Health steps into this political debate to provide evidence for cooperation and action on what is one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century. The Commission’s foundation is that migration and health are inextricably linked—and key to sustaina...ble development. It provides a framework of migration as a dynamic process, providing evidence of the multiple factors that could be beneficial or detrimental to individuals and systems along the migration journey—at origin, transit, destination, and return. It documents the devastating impacts of forced migration, especially on girls and women, but also the overall benefits to the health of individuals and populations that migration generates. It lays out a research agenda to better ensure the health of migrants. Using the lens of health the Commission shows that migration policies can be both ethical and feasible—calling for governments, international agencies, and professionals to promote health in global mobility.
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Census Report Volume 4-E
As no census has been undertaken in over 30 years, many aspects of the demographic situation in the country were unknown. For instance, before the Census it was thought that the country had a population of about 60 million, but the 2014 Census showed that the population... (including an estimate for under-enumeration) was 51,486,253 persons, around 8.5 million less than the previous estimate.
In the 1983 census, 35,307,913 persons were recorded. Therefore between 1983 and 2014, the population increased by 46 per cent. With an average annual population growth rate of 0.89 per cent between 2003 and 2014, Myanmar is one of the slowest growing countries in Southeast Asia.
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Census Report Volume 4-L
Myanmar’s 2014 Census enumerated 4.5 million people aged 60 and over and by 2050 Myanmar is projected to have 13 million people in this age group.
Myanmar’s population has aged between 1973 and 2014; while the total population increased at an annual rate of 1....4 per cent, the population aged 60 and over increased annually by 2.4 per cent. Within the older population, the oldest age group, those over 80 years old, has been growing much faster than those aged 60-79. In 2014, the urban population was slightly older than the rural population. This is the result of a more rapid decline in urban fertility, offset by net migration to urban areas by youth and young adults.
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By 2100, new UN figures show that 4 of today’s 10 most populous nations will be replaced by African countries.
Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia and Mexico—where populations are projected to stagnate or decline—will drop out. In their place: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and E...gypt. All 4 are projected to more double in population.
Top 10 rankings in population growth by 2100 include only 2 non-African nations—Pakistan and the US.
c1China will shrink by 374 million fewer people—more than the entire US population.
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This Rapid Gender Analysis provides preliminary information and observations on the different needs, capacities and coping strategies of Venezuelan migrant and refugee women, men, boys, and girls in Colombia. It seeks to understand how gender roles and relations have changed as a result of the crisi...s and share recommendations for how the humanitarian community can more effectively consider these changing dynamics to better meet the different needs of women, men, boys and girls of different ages, abilities and other contextually relevant forms of diversity. The refugee and migrant crisis in Colombia is characterized by gendered dynamics and has taken a significant toll on the health and welfare on all those affected, but particularly on women and girls. Refugee and migrant women and girls face profound vulnerabilities as they leave Venezuela and either cross Colombia or stay in various locations across the country; this is even more the case for those at increased risk, such as indigenous populations, adolescent girls, etc.
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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) both in human and veterinary medicine has reached alarming levels in
most parts of the world and has now been recognized as a significant emerging threat to global public
health and food security. In June 2015, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nati...ons
(FAO) passed a resolution on AMR at its governing
Conference. This followed the adoption of counterpart
resolutions on AMR by The World Organisation
for Animal Health (OIE) and the World Health Organization
(WHO) in May 20152, and marked the
beginning of a joint effort by the three organizations
to combat AMR globally.
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Myanmar continues to present a complex and dynamic operating context where ongoing socio-economic and political challenges, including conflict, displacement, widespread poverty and food insecurity, hinder development efforts. An estimated 24.8 percent of its 54 million population live near or below ...the poverty line. Many struggle with inadequate physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food, with women, girls, persons with disabilities and minorities affected most.
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South Africa has faced many challenges over the past two decades, accomplishing profound positive changes in the social structure and government of the nation. This has not yet fully translated into better health for the population, however, particularly the poorest segment. In fact, the p...opulation has lost ground since the 1990s in virtually all important health indicators, leaving South Africa with a high burden of infectious disease.
August 2011, Vol. 101, No. 8 SAMJ
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The purpose of this work is to estimate potential COVID-19 case burdens in each African nation considering various social distancing interventions. Given current trends in case burden, the model estimates the potential resource needs that would be needed under different scenarios. The model is for p...lanning purposes and is based on current understanding and the most up-to-date assumptions. Results reported here are not forecasts but scenarios that may unfold given the assumptions about social-distancing and population health.
You can download scenarios for North Africa; Middle Africa; West Africa, East Africa and South Africa
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While the full effects of COVID-19 remain unknown, the pandemic continues to profoundly impact regional migration and mobility dynamics, with deep health, social and economic consequences for the most vulnerable, including migrants, displaced populations and their host communities, and returnees.
The report – the first of its kind – shows how the pandemic has driven up food insecurity and increased vulnerability among migrants, families reliant on remittances and communities forced from their homes by conflict, violence and disasters.
The two UN agencies warn the social and economic ...toll of the pandemic could be devastating and call on the world to prevent it by stepping up support in response to immediate and rising humanitarian needs, addressing the socioeconomic impacts of the crisis and ensuring that the most vulnerable are not forgotten.
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BMJ Global Health, Vol.5 No. 12Spatial subdivision of the camp (‘sectoring’) was able to ‘flatten the curve’, reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with the efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced t...he overall incidence of infection, and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly in order to be maximally effective. Lockdowns had only small effects on COVID-19 dynamics.
Conclusions
Agent-based models are powerful tools for forecasting the spread of disease in spatially structured and heterogeneous populations. Our findings suggest that feasible interventions can slow the spread of COVID-19 in a refugee camp setting, and provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies. Our model can be modified to study other closed populations at risk from COVID-19 or future epidemics.
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21 January 2022
The overall threat posed by Omicron largely depends on four key questions: (i) how transmissible the variant is; (ii) how well vaccines and prior infection protect against infection, transmission, clinical disease and death; (iii) how virulent the variant is compared to other varian...ts; and (iv) how populations understand these dynamics, perceive risk and follow control measures, including public health and social measures (PHSM).
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his sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island D...eveloping States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The two reports’ combined findings provide, for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends.
Available in English, French, Arabic, Spanish
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PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ...one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
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The importance of robust mortality surveillance systems cannot be overstated in an era marked by increasing global health challenges where health threats loom large and population dynamics continue to evolve. Accurate and timely mortality data is essential for identifying trends and detecting emergi...ng health threats, evaluating the impact of interventions, and guiding evidence-based policy decisions.
This framework outlines a holistic approach to strengthening routine mortality surveillance systems, considering the unique contextual factors and challenges faced by African countries. It emphasizes the importance of establishing efficient data collection mechanisms, enhancing data quality and completeness, and promoting data sharing and collaboration among stakeholders.
Moreover, the framework recognizes the pivotal role of technology in the integration of data from fragmented mortality data sources. It highlights the potential of innovative data capture methods, advanced analytics, and real-time reporting systems to enhance mortality data’s accuracy, efficiency, and timeliness.
The continental framework for mortality surveillance aligns with Africa CDC’s mission and strategic goal by serving as a fundamental component in strengthening public health systems, enhancing disease surveillance capacities and capabilities, informing evidence-based policies and interventions, and promoting collaboration and coordination among African countries to address health challenges and improve health outcomes on the continent.
The successful implementation of this framework requires collective commitment and concerted efforts from governments, health institutions, and the international community. We hope this document will serve as a catalyst for transformative change, enabling countries to build resilient mortality surveillance systems that protect public health, save lives, and contribute to evidence-based decision-making.
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Needs assessment and analysis
Collect and analyze sex, age and disability disaggregated data (SADDD) and conduct a participatory gender analysis to understand different health needs, capacities, barriers and aspirations and identify populations with special health requirements
Population demogra...phics. E.g. pregnant and lactating women, infants, elderly, unaccompanied children, persons with disabilities, chronically ill persons 9 Gender roles and power dynamics. E.g. ability of women, girls, men and boys to make health decisions and access services; roles and responsibility of household members in health.
Gender and cultural norms and practices. E.g. preference for mixed/segregated facilities and staff; socio-cultural and religious taboos and beliefs around health, practices and beliefs on menstruation, practices and expectations on pregnancy, childbirth and breastfeeding; traditional health care providers
Intersectional issues. E.g. access to health care for LGBTIQ persons, for GBV survivors, for adolescent girls and boys
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Sound periodic programme reviews provide opportunities for countries to objectively assess progress and take corrective action to sustain or get back on track towards achieving their medium and long-term programme goals. It reflects people’s diverse needs, enables efficient use of health system re...sources and improves the predictability, sustainability and transparency of the programmes.
This publication provides guidance to countries on how to perform programme reviews for HIV, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections in this dynamic health sector context. The guidance encourages integrated reviews across health programmes for more efficient use of health system resources. The welfare of populations to be served must be at the centre of health programme reviews, with the overarching resolve to protect and promote health as a human right.
This guidance is intended for use by all national partners, including health ministries, related ministries, civil society, affected communities and other stakeholders, for participatory and evidence-informed programme reviews.
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