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Lancet Public health 2022 January 6, 2022 https://doi.org/10.1016/ S2468-2667(21)00249-8
Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform nati
...
onal planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.
more
Countries experiencing concentrated epidemics of HIV need the size of key populations (KPs) to guide the national response on HIV and AIDS. Conducting a robust method to estimate the size of KPs is quite challenging as most of them are hidden and do not want to disclose theiridentity due to stigma a
...
nd discrimination associated with their behaviour. KPs in Bangladesh include female sex workers (FSW), people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM) including transgender (TG)/Hijra and sex workers, and clients of sex workers in the country or abroad.
more
Estimating the size of key affected populations (KAP) provides important data for planning and implementing an effective response to the HIV epidemic. In the Philippines, these KAP include males who have sex with males (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and injecting drug users (IDU). Given the diffic
...
ulty in reaching these populations, as well as their high mobility, the process consequently entailed a specific methodology to directly estimate the size of KAP.
The national estimate of MSM was 531,500 or 2.2% (1.8%-3.2%) of males aged 15-49. Within this MSM estimate, figures for transgender women (TGW) and male transactional sex workers (MSW) were determined. The national estimate for TGW was 122,800 or about 0.50% (0.40%-0.75%) of males aged 15-49, and 23% of the MSM population. Meanwhile, MSW comprised 0.35% (0.29%-0.53%) of the male population aged 15-49 and 16% of the MSM population, giving a best estimate of 86,600.
The estimate of combined RFSW and FFSW was 66,100 or 0.28% (0.19%-0.40%) of females aged 15-49. Meanwhile, there are approximately 10,000 to 21,700 IDU or 0.04%-0.09% of males aged 15-49. more
The national estimate of MSM was 531,500 or 2.2% (1.8%-3.2%) of males aged 15-49. Within this MSM estimate, figures for transgender women (TGW) and male transactional sex workers (MSW) were determined. The national estimate for TGW was 122,800 or about 0.50% (0.40%-0.75%) of males aged 15-49, and 23% of the MSM population. Meanwhile, MSW comprised 0.35% (0.29%-0.53%) of the male population aged 15-49 and 16% of the MSM population, giving a best estimate of 86,600.
The estimate of combined RFSW and FFSW was 66,100 or 0.28% (0.19%-0.40%) of females aged 15-49. Meanwhile, there are approximately 10,000 to 21,700 IDU or 0.04%-0.09% of males aged 15-49. more
Population Size Estimation of Female Sex Workers In Tbilisi and Batumi, Georgia 2014
Dr. I. Chikovani; Dr. N. Shengelia; L. Sulaberidze; N. Tsereteli; et al.
The Global Fund To fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; Curatio International Foundation; Tanadgoma
(2014)
C2
Study Report August 2014
Curatio International Foundation (CIF) and the Association Tanadgoma would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by GFATM under the project “Establishment of evidence base for national HIV/AIDS program by strengthening of HIV/AIDS surveillance system in t
...
he country” (GEO-H-GPIC), which made this study possible.
The report was prepared by Dr. Ivdity Chikovani, Dr. Natia Shengelia, Lela Sulaberidze (CIF) and Nino Tsereteli (Tanadgoma).
Special thanks are extended to international consultants – Ali Mirzazadeh (MD, MPH, PhD Postdoctoral Scholar, University of California, San Francisco Institute for Health Policy Studies & Global Health Sciences) for his significant contribution in study preparation, protocol and questionnaire design and data analysis and Abu S. Abdul-Quader (PhD, Epidemiologist, Global AIDS Program Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) for his valuable input in refining methodology and overall guidance during the study implementation.
Special thanks are extended to international consultants – Abu S. Abdul-Quader (PhD, Epidemiologist, Global AIDS Program, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) for his valuable input in refining methodology and overall guidance during the study implementation and Ali Mirzazadeh (MD, MPH, PhD Postdoctoral Scholar, University of California, San Francisco Institute for Health Policy Studies & Global Health Sciences) for his significant contribution in the NSU study preparation, protocol and questionnaire design and data analysis.
Authors appreciate a highly professional work of Tanadgoma staff: the survey coordinator KhatunaKhazhomia; the interviewers: Ketevan Tchelidze, Nino Kipiani, Koba Bitsadze, Kakhaber Akhvlediani, ZazaBabunashvili, Rati Tsintsadze and the social workers: Archil Rekhviashvili, Tea Chakhrakia, Irina Bregvadze, Kakhaber Kepuladze, Ketevan Jibladze and Shota Makharadze for their input in the recruitment process.
more
The aim of this toolkit is to guide countries on how to best estimate their current burden of dengue by combining existing data from dengue surveillance systems with on-going research efforts to measure the community burden
of dengue.
While the world was gripped by the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, children continued to face the same crisis they have for decades: intolerably high mortality rates and vastly inequitable chances at life. In total, more than 5.0 million children under age 5, including 2.4 million newborns, alo
...
ng with 2.2 million children and youth aged 5 to 24 years – 43 per cent of whom are adolescents – died in 2020. This tragic and massive loss of life, most of which was due to preventable or treatable causes, is a stark reminder of the urgent need to end preventable deaths of children and young people.
more
For COVID-19, as for many infectious diseases, the true level of transmission is frequently underestimated because a substantial proportion of people with the infection are undetected either because they are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and thus typically fail to present at healthcare fac
...
ilities. There may also be neglected or under-served segments of the population who are less likely to access healthcare or testing. Under-detection of cases may be exacerbated during an epidemic, when testing capacity may be limited and restricted to people with severe cases and priority risk groups (such as frontline healthcare workers, elderly people and people with comorbidities). Cases may also be misdiagnosed and attributed to other diseases with similar clinical presentation, such as influenza.
Differences in mortality between groups of people and countries are important proxy indicators of relative risk of death that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This document is intended to help countries estimate CFR and, if possible, IFR, as appropriately and accurately as possible, while accounting for possible biases in their estimation
more
Par ailleurs l’existence d’éléments épidémiologiques en faveur d’une sous-estimation du nombre réel de cas de COVID-19 et de l’existence d’une transmission communautaire soutenue dans une zone géographique pour lesquels les deux crit
...
ères ci-dessus ne sont pas observés pourra être prise en compte dans la décision de l’inclure dans la liste des zones d’exposition à risque (par exemple : un taux de mortalité parmi les cas confirmés beaucoup plus élevé qu’attendu ; la détection de cas exportés depuis cette zone dans plusieurs pays ; une proportion importante des cas confirmés sans historique de voyage/séjour dans une zone d’exposition à risque ni contact identifié avec un cas confirmé de COVID-19).
more
The document will provide information for Ministries of Health and hospital sentinel sites on why and how to determine the denominator of at-risk children <5 years of age and rate of meningitis hospitalizations for a sentinel hospital site conducting IB-VPD surveillance. Such a methodology is currently unavailable and this
...
estimation is critical to enable interpretation of surveillance data, particularly pre- and post- vaccine introduction
more
The purpose of the situation assessment was to execute a situation analysis for Autism and Neurodevelopment Disorder (NDD) in Bangladesh. The situation assessment covers the following areas: a review of the scale and prevalence of NDD with trends of the disorder in the recent past in Bangladesh (see
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page 17); estimation of likely disease burden in the near future (see page 27); assessment of the social response to NDD in Bangladesh (see page 67); overview of the support and services required by persons with NDD (see page 79); an inventory of service providers working with NDD in Bangladesh (see page 85); an assessment of the adequacy of the existing services and support available for addressing NDD in country (see page 97); an overview of the role and preparedness of MOHFW and other stakeholders in addressing NDD in Bangladesh (see page 108); recommendations for monitoring, supervision and reporting mechanisms for NDD services at the national level (see page 167); and recommended key activities that should be undertaken by the Health and other relevant ministries in the short and medium term (see page 167).
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An attempt has been made to map the incidence of uni-dimensional and multi-dimensional poverty simultaneously arguably for the first time in Pakistan. While multi-dimensional poverty map is calculated using PSLM 2010-11; small area estimation techni
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que is utilized to map uni-dimensional poverty using both nationally representative HIES (Household Integrated Economic Survey) and district-level representative PSLM (Pakistan Standard of Living Measurement) for the same year of 2010-11. The result indicates the existence of spatial distribution of poverty pockets in each of the four provinces of Pakistan. Furthermore, it is also observed that these pockets of poverty are more concentrated in the desert and mountains regions of the country.
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This booklet provides an overview of all findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. Published in The Lancet in November 2018, GBD 2017 provides for the first time an independent estimation of population, for each of 195 countries and ter
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ritories and the globe, using a standardized, replicable approach, as well as a comprehensive update on fertility. Produced with the input of 3,676 collaborators from 146 countries and territories, GBD 2017 incorporates major data additions and improvements, and methodological refinements. GBD 2017 also includes estimates at the subnational level for selected locations.
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COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool
recommended
This tool is designed to help governments, partners, and other stakeholders to estimate potential requirements for essential supplies to respond to the current pandemic of COVID-19. Although it gives users with an estimation of the number of cases,
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this calculator is not an epidemiological calculator.
The focus of this tool is to forecast essential supplies: it includes estimation of personal protective equipment, diagnostic equipment, biomedical equipment for case management, essential drugs for supportive care, and consumable medical supplies.
The COVID-19 ESFT tool is intended to be complimentary to the Health Workforce tools (Adaptt and the Workforce Estimator). Both tools use the same base clinical attack rate ranges and classify health workforce using ILO ISCO codes, but their outputs are intentionally different due to their primary focus.
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Version 2.3 , 21 April 2022. The CVIC tool supports credible COVID-19 vaccination costing to facilitate a dialogue with stakeholders, while maintaining sensitivity to protect essential health services.
The CVIC tool provides a structured and comprehensive
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estimation of incremental operational and selected capital costs of introducing and deploying COVID-19 vaccines, in alignment with the National Deployment and Vaccination Plan (NDVP). This is essential for resource mobilization, budgeting, and delivery strategy refinement and optimization. The tool has been pre-populated with data from global databases and provides a total cost estimate over an immunization programme over the period of 2021-2023, after which COVID-19 vaccination is expected to be integrated into national immunization plans. Countries can customize the priority target populations based on WHO SAGE guidance and select multiple delivery strategies and vaccine products. The tool is available in all six UN working languages (Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish) and Portuguese. An e-learning course on CVIC is available at OpenWHO.
In this updated version 2.3 of the tool, some minor bugs have been fixed and new features have been added
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For health care providers.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest maternal mortality in the world. According to estimates by the United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group (UN MMEIG)1 in September 2017, while the African Region had
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recorded a significant decline in maternal mortality rate (MMR) of 37.8% between 2000 and 2017, 66% of the 295 000 maternal deaths reported globally occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Region is also noted to have an extremely high MMR, estimated at 542 per 100000 livebirths, with an average annual rate of reduction of 2.9%.
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Every day in 2020, approximately 800 women died from preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirth - meaning that a woman dies around every two minutes.
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.1 is to reduce maternal mortality to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births by
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2030.
The United Nations Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group (MMEIG) – comprising WHO, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the World Bank Group and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA/Population Division) has collaborated with external technical experts on a new round of estimates covering 2000 to 2020. The estimates represent the most up to date, internationally-comparable MMEIG estimates of maternal mortality, using refined input data and methods from previous rounds.
The report presents internationally comparable global, regional and country-level estimates and trends for maternal mortality between 2000 and 2020.
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