This report presents three scenarios on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa using economic growth forecasts, mortality and efforts to ameliorate impact through social grants. Likely effects are examined on per capita income, poverty and the attainment of selected Sustainable Development Goals targets. ...Africa’s development trajectory has suffered a severe setback, with extreme poverty rising in all the scenarios. The pandemic threatens Africa in several ways, and the report provides policy recommendations to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience.
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The report covers possible developments in Indonesia over the next 10 months (to end 2016). Four scenarios are outlined:
Delayed Second Crop Harvest
Delayed and Reduced Second Crop Harvest
La Niña disrupts main rural sources of income
Soaring rice prices
The scenarios wer...e developed during a two-day workshop in Jakarta, Indonesia involving 21 organisations. Scenarios are a description of situations that could occur; a set of informed assumptions about a development that may require humanitarian action to support strategic planning, create awareness, provide early warning and promote preparedness activities for those responding to the crisis.
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This web application serves as a planning tool for COVID-19 outbreaks in communities across the world. It implements a simple SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model with additional categories for individuals exposed to the virus that are not yet infectious, severely sick people in need of hospit...alization, people in critical condition, and a fatal category.
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Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Possible developments in transit countries over the next 6 months, 24 March 2016
Cette note politique s’appuie sur les données les plus récentes concernant l’impact de la date de début du programme de vaccination et des taux de déploiement des vaccins sur les bénéfices pour la santé. L’objectif est de soutenir les décideurs politiques dans leurs décisions d’appr...ovisionnement de vaccins COVID-19 et de déploiement des programmes de vaccination dans les pays, en particulier ceux où une grande partie de la population n’est pas vaccinée
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Apuntes del Taller, Anexo
Guía de tratamiento farmacológico y manejo deescenarios clínicos de casos de COVID-19 – enero 2022 Guía de tratamiento farmacológico y manejo deLeer más
This policy brief draws from the latest evidence on the impact of vaccination program start date and vaccine rollout rates on health benefits. The objective is to support policymakers on decisions to procure COVID-19 vaccines and roll out vaccination programmes in countries, especially those
where ...large proportions of the population remain unvaccinated.
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Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not be...en investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.
The Lancet Planetary Health Volume 5, ISSUE 7, e404-e414, July 01, 2021
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The purpose of this work is to estimate potential COVID-19 case burdens in each African nation considering various social distancing interventions. Given current trends in case burden, the model estimates the potential resource needs that would be needed under different scenarios. The model is for p...lanning purposes and is based on current understanding and the most up-to-date assumptions. Results reported here are not forecasts but scenarios that may unfold given the assumptions about social-distancing and population health.
You can download scenarios for North Africa; Middle Africa; West Africa, East Africa and South Africa
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The elimination scenario planning (ESP) manual provides malaria-endemic countries with a comprehensive framework to assess different scenarios for moving towards this goal, depending on programme coverage and funding availability. It also helps countries set realistic timelines and provides essentia...l knowledge for strategic planning in the long term.
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The new global scenario in times of COVID-19 makes it necessary to take urgent measures and assess the impacts they will have. ECLAC has built this Observatory to support review and follow-up over the medium and long terms and at the request of CELAC. The Observatory tracks the public policies that ...the 33 countries of the Latin America and Caribbean region are implementing to limit the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and offers analyses of the economic and social impacts that these policies will have at the national and sectoral levels.
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Applicable to both IDP and refugee scenarios, the Toolkit incorporates a wide range of relevant information on managing displaced populations living in communal settings (collective centres, spontaneous sites, established camps, etc.). Large scale displacements caused by recent conflict and natural ...disaster events have created a high demand for the Toolkit, which has proven an invaluable resource for field practitioners, government actors and displaced populations since its original release in 2004.
Available in other languages
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PSY supporting material
• Person stories
• Case scenarios
• Role plays
• Multiple choice questions
• Video links
his Framework begins with a desired future scenario and considers actions and interventions necessary to get there. It advocates for holistic view to address tuberculosis. The Framework revisits challenges and actions in four layers: TB specific; challenges in health systems that influence TB care; ...challenges in sectors beyond health that determine TB; and overarching governance issues. Multisectoral action and accountability are embedded in the Framework. The Framework is based on the principles of people-centered care and system development.
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To support countries in adapting their response to different COVID-19 scenarios, the World Health
Organization (WHO) Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing commissioned this scoping review of published and grey literature. The objective was to identify interventions... implemented to maintain the provision and use of essential services for MNCAAH during disruptive events and to summarize lessons learned during these interventions. The review included outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Zika virus disease (ZVD), the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and natural disasters and humanitarian emergencies that caused disruption to services, transport and other activities.
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Using an ensemble of climate models and socioeconomic scenarios, WRI scored and ranked future water stress—a measure of competition and depletion of surface water—in 167 countries by 2020, 2030, and 2040. We found that 33 countries face extremely high water stress in 2040 (see the full list). We... also found that Chile, Estonia, Namibia, and Botswana could face an especially significant increase in water stress by 2040. This means that businesses, farms, and communities in these countries in particular may be more vulnerable to scarcity than they are today.
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DEM supporting material
• Person stories
• Role plays
• Case scenarios
• Treatment planning handouts
• Treatment planning suggestions
• Multiple choice questions
• Video link
Activity 3: mhGAP DEM module – assessment