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2
We investigate whether and to what extent Chinese development finance affects infant mortality, combining 92 demographic and health surveys (DHS) for a maximum of 53 countries and almost 55,000 sub-national locations over the 2002-2014 period. We ad
...
dress causality by instrumenting aid with a set of interacted variables. Variation over
time results from indicators that measure the availability of funding in a given year. Cross-sectional variation results from a sub-national region’s “probability to receive aid.” Controlled for this probability in tandem with fixed effects for country-years and provinces, the interactions of these variables form powerful and excludable instruments. Our results show that Chinese aid increases infant mortality at sub-national scales, but decreases mortality at the countrylevel. In several tests, we show that this stark contrast likely results from aid being fungible within recipient countries.
more
The motivations behind China’s allocation of health aid to Africa remain complex due to limited information on the details of health aid project activities. Insufficient knowledge about the purpos
...
e of China’s health aid hinders our understanding of China’s comprehensive role in supporting Africa’s healthcare system. To address this gap, our study aimed to gain better insights into China’s health aid priorities and the factors driving these priorities across Africa. To achieve this, we utilized AidData’s Chinese Official Finance Dataset and adhered to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) guidelines.
more
Tracking development assistance for health from India to low- and middle-income countries, 2009–2020
Development assistance for health (DAH) is an important source of financing for health for many low-income and some middle-income countries. Most DAH has predominantly been contributed by high-incom
...
e countries. However, in the context of economic progress and changing global priorities, DAH contributions from countries of the Global South such as India have gained importance. In this paper, we estimate DAH contributed by India between 2009 and 2020.
more
The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that
the world was not well prepared to respond
to an infectious disease threat of this magnitude. Countries across all socioeconomic and development categories have struggled
to implement effective national responses. Substantial amounts of additional investmen
...
t are required to support the development of country capacities to prevent, detect and respond to both existing and emerging
infectious disease threats. Prior research efforts have estimated that between US$96 and $204billion is required, globally, to
advance country-level health security capacities, with US$63–131billion needed over a 3-year period. Given the substantial costs
of ongoing COVID-19 response, estimated to
be over US$12.5trillion through 2024, and an estimated 12.1–22.7million excess deaths, globally, due to COVID-19 as of January 2022,
the importance and potential return on investment of such upfront investments in capacity building are more evident than ever before.
more
Countries that are reforming their health systems to progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC) need to consider total resource requirements over the long term to plan for the implementation a
...
nd sustainable financing of UHC. However, there is a lack of detailed conceptualization as to how the current health financing mechanisms interplay across health system elements. Thus, we aimed to generate evidence on how to utilize resources from different sources of funds in Africa.
more
Strengthening resilient and sustainable systems for health (RSSH) is central to the Global Fund’s strategy, however questions persist about the Global Fund’s role in the health systems strengthe
...
ning space, and the extent to which investments are designed to achieve strengthening objectives, or just fill in gaps in the system. This paper reports on findings from the Prospective Country Evaluations (PCE), a multi-country multi-year evaluation of Global Fund support.
more
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health systems in 2020, but it is unclear how financial hardship due to out-of-pocket (OOP) health-care costs was affected. We analysed catastrophic
...
health expenditure (CHE) in 2020 in
five countries with available household expenditure data: Belarus, Mexico, Peru, Russia, and Viet Nam. In Mexico and Peru, we also conducted an analysis of drivers of change in CHE in 2020 using publicly available data.
more
Over the past decade, countries in the African region experienced slow progress in mobilizing resources for health while facing continued challenges. In their revised estimates published in 2017, Stenberg et al., developed two costs scenarios, terme
...
d progress and ambitious, aimed at strengthening comprehensive health service delivery to achieve SDG 3 and universal health coverage in low-income and middle-income countries (Stenberg et al., 2017). Out of the 47 countries in the WHO African region only eight, on average, met the recommended threshold of spending a minimum of US$ 249 per capita on health during the period from 2012 to 2020. In 2020, this achievement was observed in only five countries while the remaining countries spent less than US$ 249 per capita, with health expenditures ranging from US$ 16.4 to US$ 236.6, highlighting significant disparities across the region.
more
In 2021, global life expectancy at birth was 74 years whereas in sub-Saharan Africa it was 66 years. Yet in that same year, $92 per person was spent on health in sub- Saharan Africa, which is roughly one fifth of what the next lowest geographic regi
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on—North Africa and Middle East—spent ($379). The challenges to healthy lives in sub-Saharan Africa are many while health spending remains low. This study uses gross domestic product, government, and health spending data to give a more complete picture of the patterns of future health spending in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyzed trends in growth in gross domestic product, government health spending, development assistance for health and the prioritization of health in national spending to compare countries within sub-Saharan Africa and globally.
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One approach to development assistance for health, or health aid, emphasizes the ex ante selection of cost-effective health interventions, an appro
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ach that began with the World Development Report (1993) on Investing in Health and has since been adopted by the Effective Altruism community. But just how much of health aid is cost-effective? In this paper, we examine projects in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Creditor Reporting System, the standard dataset that measures and characterizes development assistance for health, for the
years 2019 to 2021, and count the number of projects that refer to interventions from a list of highly cost-effective interventions as defined by the Disease Control Priorities Project, third edition. This exploratory quantitative analysis indicates that 61% of projects used a key word/phrase of a costeffective intervention. There were 11.9 interventions mapped per project on average. There is little evidence that donors tailor the set of interventions to country income levels by cost-effectiveness.
Policymakers may benefit from reviewing the full portfolio of interventions covered by domestic and external resources.
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The relative priority received by issues
in global health agendas is subjected to impressionistic
claims in the absence of objective methods of assessment
of priority. To build an approach for conducting structured
assessments of comparative pri
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ority health issues receive,
we expand the public arenas model (2021) and offer a
framework for future assessments of health issue priority
in global and national health agendas.
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When we presented our analysis of Germany’s role in
global health in 2017 at an event in Berlin, Richard
Horton, the Editor-in-Chief of The Lancet, asked only
half-jokingly whether we could expect Germany to finally
shrug off the habitus of th
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e “reluctant leader” and “step
up”. Back then, the entire team of authors were hesitant
to use the term leadership as a broad label. We decided to
highlight areas where leadership could be observed, but
refrained from using it in the title of our previous study.
7 years later, after a devastating global pandemic, notable
political changes in Germany, and amid a substantially
changed global health landscape, we aim to analyse
Germany’s role in global health once more.
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As a recognized win–win-win approach to international debt relief, Debt-to-Health(D2H)has successfully translated debt repayments into investments in health-related projects. Although D2H has expe
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rienced modifications and periodic suspension, it has been playing an increasingly important role in resource mobilization in public health, particularly for low-and middle-income countries deep in debt.
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Nearly 90 years after Simon Kuznets first introduced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the limited purpose of measuring economic growth (by measuring the monetary value of all local goods and services within a given period of time), calls continue to mount for decision-makers to stop using GDP and it
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s derivate, Gross National Income (GNI), for purposes far beyond their original design. This is particularly true in the case of the development assistance architecture, where these indicators are used as proxies to measure a nation’s overall well-being and, in some cases, eligibility for external funding. The GNI-based classification system has recently even been suggested by some Member States as a criterion to access to medicines in the new WHO Pandemic Agreement.
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In the last three decades, health financialization has surged in
several creative ways, yet this growing phenomenon remains surprisingly
unknown, and neglected, in the global health arena. Financi
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alization in the
health domain could be described as the uncontrolled expansion of finance along various lines of healthcare provision. Health has been intentionally transformed into a commodity as private for-profit actors have been allowed freedom to operate - and ultimately play with people’s fundamental right to health - for their vested financial interests, nationally and internationally. Health financialization is thrivingly pursued today for example through the institutionalization of medical knowledge monopolies, the expansion of markets and of financial techniques applied to healthcare insurance schemes, the soaring digitalization of global health interventions and the booming data industry.
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Rising levels of inflation, debt and macrofiscal tightening are putting expenditures on the social sectors including health under immense scrutiny. Already, there are worrying signs of reductions in social sector investments. However, even before th
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e pandemic, evidence showed the significant returns on investments in health equity and its social determinants. Emerging data and trends show that these potential returns have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic - investments in social determinants can mitigate widespread reductions in human capital and the increasing likelihood of costly syndemics, while promoting access to healthcare innovations that have thus far been inequitably distributed. Therefore, we argue that, despite immediate fiscal pressures, this is exactly the time to invest in health equity and its broader social determinants, as the returns on such investments have never been greater.
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Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) is a politicalambition in many low- and middle-income countries(LMICs). Public funding has been recognized as funda-mental to the two dimensions of UHC: expanding healthservice coverage and increasing protec
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tion against health-related financial hardship. Relatedly, there is growing con-sensus in academic and applied policy circles that publicfinancial management (PFM)—the “systems engineering”of public financing—is a critical enabling factor for anyhealth system reform in support of UHC.
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The document is part of the Financing Global Health 2023 series by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and focuses specifically on malaria. It provides a concise overview of globa
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l and regional trends in malaria-related health spending, including development assistance, government spending, and out-of-pocket costs. The profile highlights funding gaps, shifts in donor contributions, and the need for sustainable financing to support malaria control and elimination efforts in the post-pandemic era.
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Africa’s health sector is facing an unprecedented financing crisis, driven by a sharp decline of 70% in Official Development Assistance (ODA) from 2021 to 2025 and deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities. This collapse is placing immense pressure o
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n Africa’s already fragile health systems as ODA is seen as the backbone of critical health programs: pandemic preparedness, maternal and child health services, disease control programs are all at
risk, threatening Sustainable Development Goal 3 and Universal Health Coverage. Compounding this is Africa’s spiraling debt, with countries expected to service USD 81 billion by 2025—surpassing anticipated external financing inflows—further eroding fiscal space for health investments. Level of domestic resources is low. TThe Abuja Declaration of 2001, a pivotal commitment made by African Union (AU) member states, aimed to reverse this trend by pledging to allocate at least 15% of national budgets to the health sector. However, more than two decades later, only three countries—Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde—have
consistently met or exceeded this target (WHO, 2023). In contrast, over 30 AU member states remain well below the 10% benchmark, with some allocating as little as 5–7% of their national budgets to health.
In addition, only 16 (29%) of African countries currently have updated versions of National Health Development Plan (NHDP) supported by a National Health Financing Plan (NHFP). These two documents play a critical role in driving internal resource mobilisation. At the same time, public health emergencies are surging, rising 41%—from 152 in 2022 to
213 in 2024—exposing severe under-resourcing of health infrastructure and workforce. Recurring outbreaks (Mpox, Ebola, cholera, measles, Marburg…) alongside effects of climate change and humanitarian crises in Eastern DRC, the Sahel, and Sudan, are overwhelming systems stretched by chronic underfunding. The situation is worsened by Africa’s heavy dependency with over 90% of vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics being externally sourced—leaving countries vulnerable to global supply chain shocks. Health worker shortages persist, with only 2.3 professionals
per 1,000 people (below the WHO’s recommended 4.45), and fewer than 30% of systems are digitized, undermining disease surveillance and early warning. Without decisive action, Africa CDC projects the continent could reverse two decades of health progress, face 2 to 4 million additional preventable deaths annually, and a heightened risk of a pandemic emerging from within. Furthermore, 39 million more
Africans could be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to intertwined health and economic shocks. This is not just a sectoral crisis—it is an existential threat to Africa’s political, social, and economic resilience, and global stability. In response, African leaders, under Africa CDC’s stewardship, are advancing a comprehensive three-pillar strategy centered on domestic resource mobilization, innovative financing, and blended finance.
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Achieving financial risk protection for the whole population requires significant financing for health. Health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are plagued with persistent underfun
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ding, and recent reductions in official development assistance have been registered. To create fiscal
space for health, the pursuit of efficiency gains and exploring innovative health financing for health seem attractive. This paper sought to synthesize available evidence on the nature of innovative health financing instruments, mechanisms and policies implemented in Africa. We further reviewed the factors that hinder or facilitate implementation, the lessons learnt on the structure, the development process and the implementation.
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