Le document Directives de l'OMS sur les services communautaires de santé mentale : Promouvoir les approches centrées sur la personne et fondées sur les droits fait partie de l'ensemble de publications de l'OMS sur les services communautaires de santé mentale. Il fournit une description détaill...e des approches centrées sur la personne et fondées sur les droits de l'homme en matière de santé mentale, ainsi que des exemples succincts de services de bonne pratique dans le monde. Il décrit les liens nécessaires avec les secteurs du logement, de l'éducation, de l'emploi et de la protection sociale, et présente des exemples de réseaux régionaux et nationaux intégrés de services communautaires de santé mentale. Des recommandations spécifiques et des mesures à prendre sont présentées pour développer des services de santé mentale communautaires qui respectent les droits de l'homme et sont axés sur le rétablissement. Ce document complet est accompagné d'un ensemble de sept dossiers techniques axés sur des catégories spécifiques de services de santé mentale et de conseils pour la mise en place de nouveaux services.
Le guide de l'OMS sur les services communautaires de santé mentale : Promouvoir des approches centrées sur la personne et fondées sur les droits est un ensemble de publications qui fournit des informations et un soutien à toutes les parties prenantes qui souhaitent développer ou transformer leur système et leurs services de santé mentale afin de s'aligner sur les normes internationales relatives aux droits de l'homme, notamment la Convention des Nations Unies relative aux droits des personnes handicapées.
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Small drinking-water supplies commonly experience operational, managerial, technical and resourcing challenges that impact their ability to deliver safe and reliable services. The needs and opportunities associated with these supplies therefore warrant explicit consideration in policies and regulati...ons.
These Guidelines, specifically tailored to small water supplies, build on over 60 years of guidance by the World Health Organization (WHO) on drinking-water quality and safety. They focus on establishing drinking-water quality regulations and standards that are health based and context appropriate; on proactively managing risks through water safety planning and sanitary inspections; and on carrying out independent surveillance. The guidance is intended primarily for decision-makers at national and subnational levels with responsibility for developing regulatory frameworks and support programmes related to these activities. Other stakeholders involved in water service provision will also benefit from the guidance in this document.
Designed to be practical and accessible, these Guidelines offer clear guidance that is rooted in the principle of progressive improvement. State-of-the-art recommendations and implementation guidance are provided, drawn from a comprehensive evidence review and established good practices. Additionally, case examples are provided from countries and areas around the world to demonstrate how the guidance in this publication has been implemented in practice in a wide variety of contexts.
Together with WHO’s 2024 Sanitary inspection packages – a supporting tool for the Guidelines for drinking-water quality: small water supplies, these Guidelines update and supersede WHO’s 1997 Guidelines for drinking-water quality. Volume 3: surveillance and control of community supplies. Key changes to this updated publication include a greater focus on preventive risk management and a broader range of small water supplies covered, including those managed by households, communities and professional entities.
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Haiti, one of the poorest countries in the world, was devastated by an earthquake in 2010. The disaster uncovered the realities of a non-existent mental health care system with only ten psychiatrists nationwide. Attempts were made to assess the increased prevalence of mental illness, likely due to t...he trauma to which many were exposed. Several interventions were carried out with aims to integrate mental health into primary health care services. The interplay between socio-cultural beliefs and health (both mental and physical) in Haiti has been widely commented upon by both foreign aid and local caregivers. Observations frequently highlight barriers to the willingness of patients to seek care and to their acceptance of biomedicine over traditional Vodou beliefs. The perception of Haitian beliefs as barriers to the availability and acceptance of mental health care has intensified the difficulty in providing effective recommendations and interventions both before and after the earthquake. Argued in this review is the importance of considering the interactions between socio-cultural beliefs and mental health when developing models for the prevention, screening, classification and management of mental illness in Haiti. These interactions, especially relevant in mental health care and post-disaster contexts, need to be acknowledged in any healthcare setting. The successes and failures of Haiti’s situation provide an example for global consideration.
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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global human, animal, plant and environment health threat that needs to be addressed by every country. The impacts of AMR are wide-ranging in terms of human health, animal health, food security and safety, environmental effects on ecosystems and biodiversity, and ...socioeconomic development. Just like the climate crisis, AMR poses a significant threat to the delivery of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The response to the AMR crisis has been spearheaded through the global action plan on antimicrobial resistance (GAP-AMR), developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2015, in close collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), and formally endorsed by the three organizations’ governing bodies and by the Political Declaration of the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly on AMR in 2016. In 2022, the three organizations officially became the Quadripartite by welcoming the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) into the alliance “to accelerate coordination strategy on human, animal and ecosystem health”.
The aim of the GAP-AMR is to ensure the continuity of successful treatment with effective and safe medicines.
Its strategic objectives include:
• improving the awareness and understanding of AMR;
• strengthening the knowledge and evidence base through surveillance and research;
• reducing the incidence of infection through effective sanitation, hygiene and infection prevention measures; optimizing the use of antimicrobial medicines in human and animal health; and
• developing the economic case for sustainable investment that takes account of the needs of all countries and increasing investment in new medicines, diagnostic tools, vaccines and other interventions.
With the adoption of the GAP-AMR, countries agreed to develop national action plans (NAPs) aligned with the GAP-AMR to mainstream AMR interventions nationally. Individually, the Quadripartite took action to advance AMR interventions in their respective sectors. FAO adopted a resolution on AMR recognizing that it poses an increasingly serious threat to public health and sustainable food production, and developed an AMR action plan to support the resolution’s implementation. For its part, WOAH developed a strategy on AMR aligned with the GAP-AMR, acknowledging the importance of a One Health approach to AMR. Similarly, more recently, UNEP’s governing body, the United Nations Environment Assembly, recognized that AMR is a current and increasing threat and a challenge to global health, food security and the sustainable development of all countries, and welcomed the GAP-AMR and the NAPs developed in accordance with its five overarching strategic objectives
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The report is geared towards mayors, local government officials and city policy planners.It highlights key areas where city leaders can tackle the drivers of NCDs, including tobacco use, air pollution, poor diets and lack of exercise, and improve road safety.
From anti-tobacco actions in Beijing a...nd Bogor, to road safety initiatives in Accra and Bangkok, a bike sharing scheme in Fortaleza, and actions to create walkable streets for seniors that have reduced elderly pedestrian deaths by 16% in New York City, the report aims to share knowledge between urban policy planners.
Of the 19 case studies cited, 15 are from developing countries, where 85% of premature adult deaths through NCDs take place, and over 90% of road traffic fatalities are recorded. You can download the case studieson the website https://www.who.int/ncds/publications/tackling-ncds-in-cities/en/.
Over 90% of future urban population growth will be in low or middle-income countries, and seven of the world’s 10 largest cities are in developing countries.
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The Arab region in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represents a substantial area of the terrestrial landmass encompassing several countries and ecosystems. This area is generally drier and warmer compared to the rest of the world and has extreme resource limitations that are highly vulnerabl...e to a changing climate, geopolitical instability and land degradation (Slimani & Aidoud, 2004). Agriculture (crops and livestock) is a critical source of employment and a potential option for engaging rural youth. However, environmental degradation coupled with declining and variable agricultural productivity may pose a massive challenge already beset by instability and declining oil reserves (Tagliapietra, 2017). The Arab region is also subjected to short and long-duration climate extreme events, and the overall impact of their cascading effects on ecosystems, societies and economies is still an open question. Climate change, along with post-war geopolitical complexities, has greatly affected the Arab region in terms of its economy and social balance. Climate change has penetrating effects on the region’s agriculture sector and hence its economy. These are mainly manifested via changes in water resources and extreme weather conditions such as heatwaves and a drastic decline in precipitation.
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Since 1996, trachoma has been targeted for elimination as a public health problem worldwide. The active trachoma criterion for national elimination as a public health problem is a TF1–9 < 5%, sustained for at least two years in the absence of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA), in each form...erly endemic EU. Using A, F and E, health ministries and their partners have made considerable progress towards achieving this criterion in formerly endemic EUs worldwide. In 2002, an estimated 1517 million people lived in EUs in which EU-wide implementation of the A, F and E components of SAFE were thought to be needed for the purposes of global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem; by June 2021, that number had fallen to 136.2 million, a 91% reduction. Approximately 85% of the 136.2 million people living in EUs needing A, F and E in June 2021 were in WHO’s African Region.
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The evaluation covers the period January 2020 to August 2023. The geographical scope of the evaluation has involved the three levels of WHO (global, regional and country levels) and external key partners. The programmatic evaluation scope was concerned with assessing the SP-PHC in the following area...s/evaluation criteria: relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency, added value, sustainability and equity, gender and human rights considerations. The evaluation did not assess the Universal Health Coverage Partnership (UHC-P) as it has its own separate governing body and reviews/evaluations, but instead considered how the SP-PHC had enhanced the value of the UHC-P and vice versa. The resilience and essential public health functions (REPHF) team and Systems’ Governance and Stewardship (SGS) were also not within the scope of this evaluation. However, these workstreams were considered in the wider conclusions and recommendations for the SP-PHC, as appropriate. Finally, the evaluation was focused on the SP-PHC; its scope did not include assessing the configuration and capacity of WHO’s departments and functions as they relate to UHC and health systems.
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Every country has been affected by COVID-19, with nearly a quarter
of a billion cases and almost 5 million deaths reported globally as of
end of September 2021. Despite the stunning speed with which highly
effective and safe vaccines have been developed, new waves of disease
are still pushin...g health systems to the breaking point, increasingly
transmissible variants are emerging, some survivors are suffering
serious long-term sequelae, and the International Monetary Fund
estimates that global economic losses could exceed US$5.3 trillion
by 2026, if COVID-19 becomes endemic.
Although over 6 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine have already been
administered, and global production is now reaching 1.5 billion doses
per month, the world is not positioned to end the pandemic. In areas of
high vaccine coverage, there have been massive reductions in serious
disease, hospitalization and death but, globally, vaccine access is highly
inequitable with coverage ranging from 1% to over 70%, depending
largely on a country’s wealth. Consequently, SARS CoV-2 variants
continue to emerge, causing surges of disease and slowing or even
reversing the reopening of societies and economies.
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Principaux faits
D’après les estimations, 6 à 7 millions de personnes dans le monde sont infectées par Trypanosoma cruzi (T. Cruzi), le parasite responsable de la maladie de Chagas. La plupart de ces personnes vivent en Amérique latine.
La transmission à l’être humain se fait principalem...ent, en Amérique latine, par l’intermédiaire d’un insecte appelé triatome, qui peut être porteur de T. cruzi.
Parmi les autres modes de transmission de la maladie de Chagas, figurent : la transmission orale (par voie alimentaire), la transfusion de sang ou de produits sanguins, la transmission mère-enfant (congénitale), la transplantation d’organes et les accidents de laboratoire.
La maladie de Chagas ne touchait auparavant que des zones rurales de la Région des Amériques, et surtout de l’Amérique latine. Ces dernières décennies, toutefois, les mouvements de population ont fait que la plupart des personnes infectées sont des habitants de zones urbaines (urbanisation) et que la maladie s’est propagée à d’autres continents (où T. cruzi se transmet par des voies non vectorielles).
L’infection à T. cruzi est curable si un traitement est instauré rapidement après l’infection.
Chez les personnes infectées de façon chronique, un traitement antiparasitaire peut éventuellement prévenir ou enrayer la progression de la maladie, et éviter sa transmission, notamment de la mère à l’enfant.
Jusqu’à 30 % des personnes infectées de façon chronique présentent des troubles cardiaques, et jusqu’à 10 % d’entre elles souffrent de troubles digestifs et/ou neurologiques, ce qui peut imposer un traitement particulier.
Les principales méthodes de prévention de la maladie de Chagas en Amérique latine sont la lutte antivectorielle ainsi que d’autres stratégies visant à réduire la transmission vectorielle.
Dans le monde entier, le dépistage sanguin joue un rôle crucial dans la prévention de l’infection par transfusion ou transplantation d’organes.
Il est essentiel de détecter et de traiter l’infection chez les femmes et les filles en âge de procréer, ainsi que de soumettre tout nouveau-né et ses frères et sœurs à un dépistage dans le cas où la mère est infectée et n’a jamais reçu de traitement antiparasitaire.
Certains facteurs socio-économiques et environnementaux influent fortement sur la maladie de Chagas, dont la propagation et les différentes dimensions interdépendantes justifient la nécessité de mettre en œuvre des stratégies de lutte multisectorielles.
Quelques pays ont mis en place la notification et la surveillance des cas aigus et chroniques et des voies de transmission actives, qui sont essentielles à la lutte contre la maladie de Chagas.
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As countries aim to progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and achieving universal health coverage, health inequities driven by racial discrimination and intersecting factors remain pervasive. Inequities experienced by indigenous peoples as well as people of African descent, Roma ...and other ethnic minorities are of concern globally; they are unjust, preventable and remediable.
Health systems themselves are important determinants of health and health equity. They can perpetuate health inequities by reflecting structural racism and discriminatory practices of wider society. For instance, systemic racism, implicit bias, misinformed clinical practice, or discrimination by health professionals contributes to health inequities. However, health systems can also be a leading force for tackling the inequities faced by populations experiencing racial discrimination.
Primary health care (PHC) is the essential strategy for reorientating health systems and societies to become healthier, equitable, effective and sustainable. In 2018, on the 40th anniversary of the Declaration of Alma-Ata, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) renewed the emphasis on PHC with their strategy,
WHO outlines 14 strategic and operational levers for policy-makers to strengthen PHC. Within each lever, there are multiple potential entry points for targeted actions to address racial discrimination, foster intercultural care, and reduce health inequities experienced by indigenous peoples as well as people of African descent, Roma and other ethnic minorities.
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Infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics are increasing in frequency, scale and impact. Health care facilities can amplify the transmission of emerging infectious diseases or multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO) within their settings and communities. Therefore, evidence-based infection prevention ...and control (IPC) measures in health care facilities are critical for preventing and containing outbreaks, while still delivering safe, effective and quality health care. This toolkit is intended to support IPC improvements for outbreak management in all such facilities, both public and private throughout the health system. Specifically, this document systematically describes a framework of overarching principles to approach the preparedness, readiness and response outbreak management phases. The document also provides a toolkit of resource links to guide specific actions for each infectious disease and/or MDRO outbreak management phase at any health facility. This document is specifically tailored to an audience of stakeholders who establish and monitor health care facility-level IPC programs including: IPC focal points, epidemiologists, public health experts, outbreak response incident managers, facility-level IPC committee(s), safety and quality leads and managers, and other facility level IPC stakeholders.
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Neonatal tetanus (NT), a severe newborn illness from the toxigenic strains of Clostridium tetani, persists in middle- and low-income countries due to non-sterile childbirth practices. Unlike smallpox and polio, tetanus cannot be eradicated: Clostridium tetani spores exist in the environment, and ani...mal reservoirs. However, elimination as a public health issue is achievable through widespread tetanus vaccination, clean deliveries, and proper umbilical cord care. The goal of eliminating maternal and neonatal tetanus (MNT) as a public health problem is considered met when all municipalities in a country have an annual incidence rate of NT of less than 1 case per 1000 live births. The Region of the Americas achieved the maternal and neonatal tetanus elimination (MNTE) target in 2017 when elimination was validated in the Republic of Haiti. Yet maintaining this progress requires continued efforts. High vaccination coverage, booster doses in countries lacking them, hygienic practices, and strong maternal and child health services are key. The Pan American Health Organization’s (PAHO) integrated maternal and neonatal immunization platform further strengthens this fight against early childhood diseases.
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AHRO Reviews of Nursing is an international open-access journal that promotes the dissemination of quality knowledge in all aspects of nursing practice
The AHRO Review of Nursing (ARN) is an international, open-access, peer reviewed, scientific journal that seeks to promote the dissemination of q...uality knowledge related to all spheres of nursing practice. The primary aim is to promote a high standard of clinically related scholarship which advances and supports the practice and discipline of nursing. The Journal also aims to promote the international exchange of ideas and experience that draws from the different cultures in which practice takes place. Further, ARN seeks to enrich insight into clinical need and the implications for nursing intervention and models of service delivery. Emphasis is placed on promoting critical debate on the art and science of nursing practice.
ARN is essential reading for anyone involved in nursing practice, whether clinicians, researchers, educators, managers, policy makers, or students. The development of clinical practice and the changing patterns of inter-professional working are also central to ARN's scope of interest. Contributions are welcomed from other health professionals on issues that have a direct impact on nursing practice.
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Key facts
- A healthy diet helps to protect against malnutrition in all its forms, as well as noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cancer.
- Unhealthy diet and lack of physical activity are leading global risks to health.
- Healthy dietary practices start... early in life – breastfeeding fosters healthy growth and improves cognitive development, and may have longer term health benefits such as reducing the risk of becoming overweight or obese and developing NCDs later in life.
- Energy intake (calories) should be in balance with energy expenditure. To avoid unhealthy weight gain, total fat should not exceed 30% of total energy intake (1, 2, 3). Intake of saturated fats should be less than 10% of total energy intake, and intake of trans-fats less than 1% of total energy intake, with a shift in fat consumption away from saturated fats and trans-fats to unsaturated fats (3), and towards the goal of eliminating industrially-produced trans-fats (4, 5, 6).
- Limiting intake of free sugars to less than 10% of total energy intake (2, 7) is part of a healthy diet. A further reduction to less than 5% of total energy intake is suggested for additional health benefits (7).
- Keeping salt intake to less than 5 g per day (equivalent to sodium intake of less than 2 g per day) helps to prevent hypertension, and reduces the risk of heart disease and stroke in the adult population (8).
- WHO Member States have agreed to reduce the global population’s intake of salt by 30% by 2025; they have also agreed to halt the rise in diabetes and obesity in adults and adolescents as well as in childhood overweight by 2025 (9, 10).
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This monograph presents 12 reports of successful programs serving children with special needs in various nations. The program locations and the program report titles and authors are as follows: (1) Austria: "Integration Models for Elementary and Secondary Schools in Austria" (Volker Rutte)...; (2) China: "Integrated Education Project, Anhui Province" (Janet C. Holdsworth); (3) Ghana: "The Community-Based Rehabilitation Programme in Ghana" (Lawrence Ofori-Addo); (4) Guyana: "Involvement of Volunteers, Parents and Community Members with Children with Special Needs" (Brian O'Toole); (5) India: "Teacher Development Initiative To Meet Special Needs in the Classroom" (N. K. Jangira and Anupam Ahuja); (6) Jamaica: "Early Intervention and Education Initiatives in Rural Areas" (M. J. Thorburn); (7) Jordan: "The Role of Institutions in Community-based Rehabilitation and in Community-based Special Education" (Andrew L. de Carpentier); (8) Jordan: "The Resource Room at the Amman National School" (Hala T. Ibrahim); (9) Netherlands: "Individual Integration of Children with Down's Syndrome in Ordinary Schools" (Trijntje de Wit-Gosker); (10) Norway: "In Harmony We Learn" (Marna Moe); (11) International: "INITIATIVES for Deaf Education in the Third World" (Andrew L. de Carpentier); and (12) Sri Lanka: "The Integrated Education of Visually Impaired Children in Sri Lanka" (B. L. Rajapakse).
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In 2014, the Ministry of Health (MOH) in Malawi conducted a nationwide assessment of emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC) services. This cross-sectional facility-based survey used 10 data collection modules. Data collection began on 23rd September 2014 and concluded on 17th October 2014, in ...all 28 districts. Facilities in both the public and private sector (for-profit and not-for-profit) were included. Since the focus of the assessment was obstetric and newborn care, health facilities that did not offer maternal and newborn health (MNH) services were not selected. In all districts, a census of all hospitals and a 60 percent random sample of health centres that ought to have performed deliveries in the previous year yielded a total of 365 facilities: 87 hospitals and 278 health centres. All these facilities were visited during the assessment. During analysis, weighting procedures were applied to extrapolate results to the district and national level, representing all 87 hospitals and 464 health centres. Such weighting was necessary as a stratified random sample of health centres was taken and weighting applied to all indicators and presentations that have health facility as a unit of measurement. Case reviews and provider’s interviews, on the other hand, are not weighted as their sampling strategy is based on convenience.
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L'importance de systèmes de surveillance de la mortalité robustes ne peut être surestimée à une époque marquée par des défis sanitaires mondiaux croissants, où les menaces sanitaires pèsent lourd et la dynamique des populations continue d'évoluer. Des données précises et opportunes sur ...la mortalité sont essentielles pour identifier les tendances et détecter les menaces émergentes pour la santé, évaluer l'impact des interventions et orienter les décisions politiques fondées sur des données probantes.
Ce cadre décrit une approche holistique pour renforcer les systèmes de surveillance de routine de la mortalité, en tenant compte des facteurs contextuels uniques et des défis auxquels sont confrontés les pays africains. Il souligne l'importance d'établir des mécanismes de collecte de données efficaces, d'améliorer la qualité et l'exhaustivité des données et de promouvoir le partage des données et la collaboration entre les parties prenantes.
De plus, le cadre reconnaît le rôle central de la technologie dans l'intégration des données provenant de sources de données fragmentées sur la mortalité. Il met en évidence le potentiel des méthodes innovantes de capture de données, des analyses avancées et des systèmes de notification en temps réel pour améliorer la précision, l'efficacité et l'actualité des données sur la mortalité.
Le cadre continental de surveillance de la mortalité s'aligne sur la mission et l'objectif stratégique d'Africa CDC en servant d'élément fondamental dans le renforcement des systèmes de santé publique, l'amélioration des capacités et des capacités de surveillance des maladies, l'élaboration de politiques et d'interventions fondées sur des données probantes et la promotion de la collaboration et de la coordination entre les pays africains pour relever les défis sanitaires et améliorer les résultats sanitaires sur le continent.
La mise en œuvre réussie de ce cadre nécessite un engagement collectif et des efforts concertés de la part des gouvernements, des établissements de santé et de la communauté internationale. Nous espérons que ce document servira de catalyseur pour un changement transformateur, permettant aux pays de mettre en place des systèmes de surveillance de la mortalité résilients qui protègent la santé publique, sauvent des vies et contribuent à la prise de décision fondée sur des données probantes.
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Food environments are usually defined as the settings with all the different types of
food made available and accessible to people as they go about their daily lives.
That is, the range of food in supermarkets, small retail outlets, wet markets, street
food stalls, coffee shops, tea houses, s...chool canteens, restaurants, and all the other
venues where people buy and eat food. These environments differ enormously depending on the context. They can be extensive and diverse, with a seemingly endless array of options and price ranges, or they can be sparse, with very few options on offer. Because they determine what food consumers can access at a given moment in time, at what price, and with what degree of convenience, food environments both constrain and prompt the consumer’s choice.Food environments are influenced by the food systems which supply them, and vice versa. Food systems encompass the entire range of activities, people and institutions involved in the production, processing,
marketing, consumption and disposal of food (FAO, 2013). They include but are not limited to food supply chains. Making food systems nutrition-sensitive can contribute to addressing all forms of malnutrition, as food systems determine whether the food needed for good nutrition are available, affordable, acceptable and of adequate
quantity and quality. How closely food systems and food environments are interrelated and interdependent, and the degree to which external factors affect nutrition outcomes, varies from setting to setting.Many of today’s food systems
and food environments are challenged in supporting consumer choices that are
consistent with healthy diets and good nutrition. Consumers are not making choices based on nutrition and health, and poor diet is now the number one risk factor for death and disability worldwide (GBD, 2015). Food systems that do not enable healthy diets are increasingly recognized as an underlying cause of malnutrition (GLOPAN, 2016), and malnutrition, irrespective of form, has a huge cost. Economic costs associated with undernutrition are estimated at $1-2 trillion per year, about 2-3% of global GDP (FAO, 2013); the global economic cost of obesity and associated diet-related non-communicable diseases is estimated at $2 trillion per year, about 2.8% of global GDP (McKinsey, 2014). Influencing food environments for promoting healthy diets is an emerging strategy to address today’s nutrition challenges.
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Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards ...UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. Methods: We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country’s UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios.
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