Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from ...the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021.
The Lancet. 10 March 2022. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3.
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Lancet Public health 2022 January 6, 2022 https://doi.org/10.1016/ S2468-2667(21)00249-8
Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform nati...onal planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.
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Many critical questions remain about the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in real-world settings. These questions can only be answered in post-introduction vaccine effectiveness studies.This guidance document outlines an approach to leverage existing surveillance systems for Severe Acute Respirato...ry Infection (SARI) to estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing SARI associated with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 using existing SARI surveillance systems. The approach uses the test-negative design to evaluate VE; cases are SARI patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and controls are SARI patients who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2.
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For COVID-19, as for many infectious diseases, the true level of transmission is frequently underestimated because a substantial proportion of people with the infection are undetected either because they are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and thus typically fail to present at healthcare fac...ilities. There may also be neglected or under-served segments of the population who are less likely to access healthcare or testing. Under-detection of cases may be exacerbated during an epidemic, when testing capacity may be limited and restricted to people with severe cases and priority risk groups (such as frontline healthcare workers, elderly people and people with comorbidities). Cases may also be misdiagnosed and attributed to other diseases with similar clinical presentation, such as influenza.
Differences in mortality between groups of people and countries are important proxy indicators of relative risk of death that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This document is intended to help countries estimate CFR and, if possible, IFR, as appropriately and accurately as possible, while accounting for possible biases in their estimation
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WHO working group on HIV incidence assays meeting report
10–11 December 2015
Glion, Switzerland
UNAIDS/WHO working group on global HIV/AIDS and STI surveillance
WHO/HIV/2017.03
Estimating the size of key affected populations (KAP) provides important data for planning and implementing an effective response to the HIV epidemic. In the Philippines, these KAP include males who have sex with males (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and injecting drug users (IDU). Given the diffic...ulty in reaching these populations, as well as their high mobility, the process consequently entailed a specific methodology to directly estimate the size of KAP.
The national estimate of MSM was 531,500 or 2.2% (1.8%-3.2%) of males aged 15-49. Within this MSM estimate, figures for transgender women (TGW) and male transactional sex workers (MSW) were determined. The national estimate for TGW was 122,800 or about 0.50% (0.40%-0.75%) of males aged 15-49, and 23% of the MSM population. Meanwhile, MSW comprised 0.35% (0.29%-0.53%) of the male population aged 15-49 and 16% of the MSM population, giving a best estimate of 86,600.
The estimate of combined RFSW and FFSW was 66,100 or 0.28% (0.19%-0.40%) of females aged 15-49. Meanwhile, there are approximately 10,000 to 21,700 IDU or 0.04%-0.09% of males aged 15-49.
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This report presents the findings of the Estimating the Size of Populations through a Household Survey (ESPHS) study that took place in 2011. The study utilized a single household survey to estimate the size of several key populations, including sex workers, men who have sex with men (MSM), injectin...g drug users (IDU), and clients of sex workers. These populations include several groups outlined in the National Strategic Plan for HIV and AIDS as most at risk for HIV infection, specifically sex workers and MSM.
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Anema et al. AIDS Research and Therapy 2011, 8:13 http://www.aidsrestherapy.com/content/8/1/13
Childhood immunisation is one of the most cost-effective health interventions. However, despite its known value, global access to vaccines remains far from complete. Although supply-side constraints lead to inadequate vaccine coverage in many health systems, there is no comprehensive analysis of the... funding for immunisation. We aimed to fill this gap by generating estimates of funding for immunisation disaggregated by the source of funding and the type of activities in order to highlight the funding landscape for immunisation and inform policy making.
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Unfortunately, current data available on SDG financing are not sufficient to quantify the distribution of financing for the SDGs.
AidData’s methodology for measuring financing to the SDGs attempts to fill this gap by analyzing development project documentation to estimate project-level contributi...ons to the SDGs (and their associated targets). This methodology lets us see where development financing is targeted, allowing comparisons among SDG goals and individual SDG targets.
This methodology note describes two iterations of AidData’s methodology. The first, based on a crosswalk with existing aid reporting schemes, was employed for AidData’s 2017 flagship report Realizing Agenda 2030: Will donor dollars and country priorities align with global goals? and our brief Financing the SDGs in Colombia. The second iteration of the methodology employs a direct coding scheme, linking development projects directly to the SDGs through analysis and coding of project descriptions rather than through an intermediary classification system. This method was employed for our 2019 brief Financing the SDGs: Evidence in Four Countries.
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Soil transmitted helminth (STH) infections are among the most common human infections worldwide with over 1 billion people affected. Many estimates of STH infection are often based on school-aged children (SAC). This study produced predictive risk-maps of STH on a more finite scale, estimated the nu...mber of people infected, and the amount of drug required for preventive chemotherapy (PC) in Ogun state, Nigeria. Georeferenced STH infection data obtained from a cross-sectional survey at 33 locations between July 2016 and November 2018, together with remotely-sensed environmental and socio-economic data were analyzed using Bayesian geostatistical modelling. Stepwise variable selection procedure was employed to select a parsimonious set of predictors to predict risk and spatial distribution of STH infections. The number of persons (pre-school ages children, SAC and adults) infected with STH were estimated, with the amount of tablets needed for preventive chemotherapy. An overall prevalence of 17.2% (95% CI 14.9, 19.5) was recorded for any STH infection. Ascaris lumbricoides infections was the most predominant, with an overall prevalence of 13.6% (95% CI 11.5, 15.7), while Hookworm and Trichuris trichiura had overall prevalence of 4.6% (95% CI 3.3, 5.9) and 1.7% (95% CI 0.9, 2.4), respectively. The model-based prevalence predictions ranged from 5.0 to 23.8% for Ascaris lumbricoides, from 2.0 to 14.5% for hookworms, and from 0.1 to 5.7% for Trichuris trichiura across the implementation units. The predictive maps revealed a spatial pattern of high risk in the central, western and on the border of Republic of Benin. The model identified soil pH, soil moisture and elevation as the main predictors of infection for A. lumbricoides, Hookworms and T. trichiura respectively. About 50% (10/20) of the implementation units require biannual rounds of mass drug administration. Approximately, a total of 1.1 million persons were infected and require 7.8 million doses. However, a sub-total of 375,374 SAC were estimated to be infected, requiring 2.7 million doses. Our predictive risk maps and estimated PC needs provide useful information for the elimination of STH, either for resource acquisition or identifying priority areas for delivery of interventions in Ogun State, Nigeria.
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Chagas disease constitutes a public health problem, and Spain is the non-endemic country with the highest burden of disease outside the Americas. It represents a model for non-endemic countries regarding health policies to control the disease. This study is aimed to generate estimates of the T.cruzi... prevalence and the number of undetected and untreated individuals with the infection in Spain and to compare them with the actual number of cases reported by official sources.
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Enfoque de riesgo para la prevención de enfermedades cardiovasculares, consenso 2014
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.16.178608
No publication year indicated
The cost of newborn and child health interventions were estimated considering several different angles. At the first attempt, the cost of implementing all newborn and child health interventions packaged as antenatal, Intra natal, Essential newborn care, Care of sic...k newborn, Care of premature & LBW, Nutrition, Immunization, Care of sick infants and newborns, ECCD and WASH was estimated. This estimate reflects the cost of entire newborn and child care program thrust in the country. Costs of different intervention sub packages were also determined.
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Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report Suppl. Vol.63/3
Countries experiencing concentrated epidemics of HIV need the size of key populations (KPs) to guide the national response on HIV and AIDS. Conducting a robust method to estimate the size of KPs is quite challenging as most of them are hidden and do not want to disclose theiridentity due to stigma a...nd discrimination associated with their behaviour. KPs in Bangladesh include female sex workers (FSW), people who inject drugs (PWID), men who have sex with men (MSM) including transgender (TG)/Hijra and sex workers, and clients of sex workers in the country or abroad.
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