PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also ...one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.
more
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease that occurs mainly in the tropics and subtropics but has a high potential to spread to new areas. Dengue infections are climate sensitive, so it is important to better understand how changing climate factors affect the potential for geographic spread and futu...re dengue epidemics. Vectorial capacity (VC) describes a vector's propensity to transmit dengue taking into account human, virus, and vector interactions. VC is highly temperature dependent, but most dengue models only take mean temperature values into account. Recent evidence shows that diurnal temperature range (DTR) plays an important role in influencing the behavior of the primary dengue vector Aedes aegypti. In this study, we used relative VC to estimate dengue epidemic potential (DEP) based on the temperature and DTR dependence of the parameters of A. aegypti. We found a strong temperature dependence of DEP; it peaked at a mean temperature of 29.3°C when DTR was 0°C and at 20°C when DTR was 20°C. Increasing average temperatures up to 29°C led to an increased DEP, but temperatures above 29°C reduced DEP. In tropical areas where the mean temperatures are close to 29°C, a small DTR increased DEP while a large DTR reduced it. In cold to temperate or extremely hot climates where the mean temperatures are far from 29°C, increasing DTR was associated with increasing DEP. Incorporating these findings using historical and predicted temperature and DTR over a two hundred year period (1901-2099), we found an increasing trend of global DEP in temperate regions. Small increases in DEP were observed over the last 100 years and large increases are expected by the end of this century in temperate Northern Hemisphere regions using climate change projections. These findings illustrate the importance of including DTR when mapping DEP based on VC.
more
Best Practices Report.PART 1 Primary Protection: Enhancing Health Care Resilience for a Changing Climatei Primary Protection: EnhancingU.S. Department of Health and Human Services
A guide to facilitating community-managed disaster risk reduction in the Horn of Africa.
This manual describes how to help communities implement disaster risk reduction activities. It was written for development workers and community-based organizations in the Horn of Africa, but practitioners can ...use it to implement activities around the world
more
Findings from this report reveal that, rates of early marriage are high, a significant percentage of children contribute to the household’s income or are its main source of income, and restrictions on the mobility of women and girls constrain their participation in social and economic activities a...nd their access to basic services. As the overwhelming majority of refugees do not have paid employment and rely mainly on aid and dwindling family resources, the more the situation of displacement is prolonged the greater the likelihood of higher rates of child labour for boys and early marriage for girls.
more
This report sets out ways to make pre-hospital care and ambulance services operating in areas of armed violence safer. Written by the Norwegian Red Cross with support from the ICRC and the Mexican Red Cross, the report summarizes field experience in over 20 countries.
The main aim of this assessment was to evaluate the PSS response of URCS to these VHF, against the needs of beneficiaries and communities focused on the areas of most ‘added value’ of the URCS; community engagement mobilisation and support, documenting any unintended outcomes and best practice r...elated to the operation.
more
Water security, or having the right amount and quality of water in the right place at the right time, fosters social and economic progress. Where water is sufficient to meet demand, it can promote economy wide growth and enable countries to reach their food security, energy security, and human devel...opment goals. Where it is scarce, excessive, or unclean it can exacerbate multiple dimensions of poverty. Neither of these two worlds is protected from future water crises, which are heavily influenced by changing local circumstances
more
It is a pressing question for donors and NGOs alike: is funding development and humanitarian work in fragile and conflict-affected states (FCAS) the equivalent of pouring money into a bottomless pit, if achievements are only going to be undone by further cycles of violence? There is, of course, a st...rong humanitarian imperative to meet the needs of those caught up in violence. However, if the long-term aim of humanitarian and development efforts is the reduction of poverty, it begs the question: what contribution can these programmes make to building peace and stability – and thus increase their own effectiveness and sustainability?
more
Handbook of Foodborne Pathogenic Microorganisms and Natural Toxins
HIV & AIDS Treatment in Practice no. 201
BAB training in prevention and management of postpartum hemorrhage increased knowledge and confidence among skilled and semiskilled birth attendants. Further studies are needed to determine the impact of this training on skills retention and clinical outcomes following postpartum hemorrhage, after b...roader implementation of the training program
more
(You need free registration to download the book)
Disasters and public health emergencies can stress health care systems to the breaking point and disrupt delivery of vital medical services. During such crises, hospitals and long-term care facilities may be without power; trained staff, ambulances,... medical supplies and beds could be in short supply; and alternate care facilities may need to be used. Planning for these situations is necessary to provide the best possible health care during a crisis and, if needed, equitably allocate scarce resources
more
This guide supports the low-dose, high-frequency practice of scenerios needed to maintain competency in prevention and management of postpartum hemorrhage. The document is learner centered and is directly linked to service delivery standards. It is part of the Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After ...Birth training package.
more
This review of the IFRC support to the Sierra Leone Red Cross Society response to the 2012 cholera outbreak provides ideas and concepts to promote a more coherent and evidence based rationale on how to make more effective use of IFRC global assets to stop, control, mitigate and respond to cholera ep...idemics. No fit and healthy person should die from cholera – that should be the indicator of success.
more
This guide can inform any partner that manages or supports public health supply chains. Ministries of health, technical assistance partners, or non-governmental organization (NGO) operating distribution systems can all benefit from conducting a costing exercise and can use the material presented in ...this guide to support their efforts.This guide serves as a companion to the project’s manual for the Supply Chain Costing Tool (SCCT), an Excel-based software application that supports supply chain costing analysis efforts. However, this guide presents a methodology that does not assume use of any particular costing.
more