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- Module 1: Understanding modelling approaches for sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health, and nutrition
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has a wide range of documented effects. It directly causes death and disability for some people infected. However, disruption to
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essential health services, resources allocated to mitigation and therefore away from essential health service delivery, and the overall impact on the economy and society must also be considered within the response to COVID-19. Understanding the magnitude of all of these effects is an essential part of developing mitigation polices.
Several epidemiological models have been created to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 on morbidity and mortality from conditions other than COVID-19 illness. This guide presents models that have been used to assess these indirect impacts. The effects have been studied in various settings, using a variety of models.
The guide is intended for people who need to understand what the models say, their construction and their underlying assumptions, or need to use models and their outcomes for planning and programme development and to support policy decisions for a country or region.
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Key questions
What is already known?
Critical illness is common throughout the world and COVID-19 has caused a global surge of critically ill patients.
There are large gaps in the quality of care for critically ill patients, especially in low-staffed and low-resourced settings, and
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mortality rates are high.
Essential Emergency and Critical Care (EECC) is the effective lifesaving care of low-cost and low-complexity that all critically ill patients should receive in all wards in all hospitals in the world.
What are the new findings?
The clinical processes that comprise EECC and the essential care of critically ill patients with COVID-19 have been specified in a large consensus among clinical experts worldwide.
The resource requirements for hospitals to be ready to provide this care has been described.
What do the new findings imply?
The findings can be used across medical specialties in hospitals worldwide to prioritise and implement essential care for reducing preventable deaths.
Inclusion of the EEEC processes could increase the impact of pandemic preparedness and response programmes and policies for health systems strengthening.
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From the start of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2021, extreme weather events have affected at least 139.2 million people and killed at least 17,242 people in at least 433 unique events. These figures are certainly an underestimate, as they do not include estimates of numbers of people affected
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by extreme temperatures, or mortality during drought events.
One dimension of the compound risk of COVID-19 and climate extremes was the additional challenge of preparing for and responding to disasters during the pandemic, such as the constraints of physical distancing during evacuations and response operations.
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Accessed on 06.03.2022
Air pollution is contamination of the indoor or outdoor environment by any chemical, physical or biological agent that modifies the natural characteristics of the atmosphere. Household combustion devices, motor vehicles, industrial facilities and forest fires are common sou
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rces of air pollution. Pollutants of major public health concern include particulate matter, carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Outdoor and indoor air pollution cause respiratory and other diseases and is an important source of morbidity and mortality.
Air pollution kills an estimated seven million people worldwide every year. WHO data shows that almost all of the global population (99%) breathe air that exceeds WHO guideline limits containing high levels of pollutants, with low- and middle-income countries suffering from the highest exposures. WHO is supporting countries to address air pollution.
From smog hanging over cities to smoke inside the home, air pollution poses a major threat to health and climate. The combined effects of ambient (outdoor) and household air pollution cause millions of premature deaths every year, largely as a result of increased mortality from stroke, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer and acute respiratory infections.
Website
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The One Health approach can help achieve progress and promotes synergies on national and global priorities by generating synergies at the human-animal-environmental interface. While evidence is still scare, it is likely that the approach is highly cost-effective and improves effectiveness of core pu
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blic health systems, through reducing morbidity, mortality, and economic costs of disease outbreaks. It also contributes to economic development through strengthening public health systems at the human-animal-environment interface protects health, agricultural production, and
ecosystem services
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Clinical Microbiology and Infection Volume 21, Issue 5, May 2015, Pages 433-443;
The neglected zoonotic diseases (NZDs) have been all but eradicated in wealthier countries, but remain major causes of ill-health and mortality across Africa, Asia, a
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nd Latin America. This neglect is, in part, a consequence of under-reporting, resulting in an underestimation of their global burden that downgrades their relevance to policy-makers and funding agencies. Increasing awareness about the causes of NZDs and how they can be prevented could reduce the incidence of many endemic zoonoses.
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Extreme heat events (EHEs) are a leading cause of weather-related injury and death in the United States, and under a changing climate, these meteorological episodes are predicted to increase in both frequency and intensity. Prolonged heat exposure from EHEs places an increased strain on the heart an
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d may lead to heat-related illness if the cardiovascular system fails to properly thermoregulate internal body temperature. Every individual is susceptible to heat-related illness, however, those with reduced cardiovascular function and pre-existing cardiovascular diseases are at a greater risk for morbidity and mortality during EHEs. This document gives an overview of our current understanding of heat exposure and its impact on cardiovascular health outcomes, an overview of the medications that may exacerbate heat-related cardiovascular illness, and asummary of the interaction between extreme heat and air pollutants, and their collective impact on cardiovascular health. Additionally, this document summarizes epidemiologic evidence and identifies gaps in the extant peer-reviewed literature on the effectiveness of strategies and interventions to protect against heat-related cardiovascular disease and death. This information is intended to aid health departments and other health professionals in understanding and responding to the impacts of heat exposure on cardiovascular health.
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The policy brief focuses on four key areas for intervention - air pollution, energy, transport and food systems. Air pollution causes 7 million deaths annually, and is a leading cause of both NCDs and climate change, thus all interventions to reduce air pollution have a positive impact on both human
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and planetary health. In the energy sector, transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is if vital importance to improving health, with mortality rates due to coal-generated electricity 1,000 times higher than for wind-generated electricity.
Promoting active transport such as walking and cycling in place of motorised transport has the dual benefit of reducing both air pollution and physical activity. Livestock production alone accounts for 18% of greenhouse gas emissions, with added emissions from food which are highly process and transported over long distances, and thus locally sourced plant based diets both prevent NCDs and promote human and planetary health.
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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a major global threat across human, animal, plant food and environmental sectors, threatening the effective treatment of an ever-increasing range of infections caused by bacteria, parasites, viruses and fungi, resulting in prolonged illness and increased
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mortality, often felt hardest by the most vulnerable populations. AMR also endangers the sustainability of agri-food systems and food safety.
Since 2010 there is a strong commitment from FAO, OIE and PAHO to fight AMR, working together to mitigate the risks in the interconnection among the human health, animal health and the environment. In this context, the organizations now joined forces in the implementation of the project ‘Working Together to Fight Antimicrobial Resistance’ to ensure a coherent “One Health” approach recognizing the multidimensionality and necessity of an intersectoral response that is needed to address the problem of AMR.
The overall strategic objective of the three-year project (2020-22) supported and financed by the European Union (EU) is to contribute to tackle AMR through the implementation of National AMR Action Plans by working with seven Latin American partner countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay.
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Health Policy and Planning, Volume 35, Issue 1, February 2020, Pages 47–57, https://doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czz122
Colombia has an underreporting of 30% of the total cases, according to World Health Organization (WHO) estimations. In 2016, successful tuberculosis (TB) treatment rate was 70%, and t
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he mortality rate ranged between 3.5% and 10%. In 2015, Colombia adopted and adapted the End TB strategy and set a target of 50% reduction in incidence and mortality by 2035 compared with 2015.
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Africa CDC Non Communicable Diseases, Injuries Prevention and Control and Mental Health Promotion Strategy
recommended
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) & injuries and mental health conditions constitute a serious impediment to achieving the vision of Agenda 2063 to build an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Africa driven by its own citizens. Each year, these conditions cause millions of premature deaths and disab
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led lives across Africa. These conditions also lead to annual economic loss of multiple billion US-Dollars. Their burden both in terms of disease morbidity/mortality and socio-economic impact is increasing.
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The Guidelines for the Prevention, Surveillance and Management of COVID-19 Infection amongst Health Care Workers (HCW) in Zimbabwe were developed to prevent, detect and manage HCW COVID-19 infection, an emerging pandemic affecting the whole world. The HCW is at the fore front of this pandemic, thus
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the need for standardised operating procedures is of utmost importance. These guidelines therefore seek to reduce the significant morbidity and mortality among the HCW, ultimately ensuring the reduction of the cost to the health care worker and the Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC) as a whole. The Ministry of Health and Child Care requires that all health care workers in various health care settings follow infection prevention and control procedures.
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Diabetes is a major public health problem in the Americas and worldwide, demanding special attention and integrated response. It is estimated that more than 62 million adults are living with diabetes in the Americas. The projections show that diabetes prevalence will continue to increase to at least
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2025. Its steady rise has been mainly due to the high prevalence of risk factors, especially overweight/obesity and physical inactivity. Diabetes also is one of the leading causes of mortality and disability worldwide and across our Region.
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Global temperatures and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves will rise in the 21st century as a result of climate change. Extended periods of high day and nighttime temperatures create cumulative physiological stress on the human body which exacerbates the top causes of death globally, including
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respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus and renal disease. Heatwaves can acutely impact large populations for short periods of time, often trigger public health emergencies, and result in excess mortality, and cascading socioeconomic impacts
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Obesity is a global health problem. Its worldwide prevalence has tripled between 1975 and 2016, reaching a prevalence in Chile of 34.4%, according to the National Health Survey 2016-2017. If this condition corresponds to a risk factor or primary disease is a widely discussed issue. It is recognized
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as a disease by the American Medical Association and World Health Organization,
based on its metabolic and hormonal features, such as dysregulation of appetite, abnormal energy balance and endocrine dysfunction, among others. Its main environmental risk factors are the consumption of ultra-processed foods and sedentariness. Preventive measures at the population level are fundamental, emphasizing promotion and prevention using a transdisciplinary approach. The individual approach in the management of obesity should improve the quality of life, avoid early mortality, reduce cardiovascular risk, and reduce the progression to type 2 diabetes and incidence of cancer. Thus, an adequate management and
control of obesity would have a great impact in our society.
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Liberia: Demographic and Health Survey 2019-2020
Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) Monrovia, Liberia
The DHS Program ICF
(2021)
C2
The LDHS provides an opportunity to inform policy and provide data for planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of national health programs. It is designed to provide up-to-date information on health indicators including fertility levels, sexual activity, fertility preferences, awaren
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ess and use of family
planning methods, breastfeeding practices, nutritional status of children, early childhood and maternal mortality, maternal and child health, and awareness and behaviors regarding HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections. The study also incorporated measurements of HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis Cprevalence along with seroprevalence of Ebola virus disease antibodies, the results of which will be included in future addendums. In addition to presenting national estimates, the report provides estimates of key indicators for both rural and urban areas, the country’s 15 counties, and the capital, Monrovia.
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Microorganisms . 2022 Jul 14;10(7):1427.
Chagas disease (CD) is endemic in about 21 countries of the Americas. The disease has spread to recently Chagas-free regions, mainly due to migration, and can now also be diagnosed in countries such as the USA, Canada, many European and some African, eastern
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Mediterranean and western Pacific countries. About 6 million people are infected and 70 million live with a daily risk of infection. Although many efforts have been made to control the disease, and some improvements were achieved, still, less than about 1% of the infected have access to diagnosis and treatment. This causes high morbidity and mortality rates with more than 12,000 deaths per year
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The Ethiopia Multi-Sectorial Cholera Elimination Plan (2022-2028) outlines a national strategy to eliminate cholera in Ethiopia by 2028. The plan follows the Global Roadmap to End Cholera by 2030 and is based on six key pillars: Leadership & Coordination, Water, Sanitation & Hygiene (WASH), Surveill
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ance & Reporting, Use of Oral Cholera Vaccines (OCV), Healthcare System Strengthening, and Community Engagement.
Ethiopia has historically faced recurrent cholera outbreaks due to poor sanitation, unsafe water, and weak health infrastructure. The plan prioritizes high-risk areas (hotspot woredas) and aims to reduce cholera-related mortality by 90% by 2028. It includes efforts to improve WASH conditions, strengthen disease surveillance, enhance rapid response capabilities, expand vaccination campaigns, and integrate cholera control into broader health policies.
The government, in collaboration with international partners such as WHO, UNICEF, and the Global Task Force for Cholera Control (GTFCC), will implement and monitor the plan. The estimated budget for the initiative is $390 million over eight years. Ethiopia aims to achieve zero cholera transmission in hotspot regions, ensuring sustainable public health improvements.
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Nearly 260 000 people died in parts of Somalia between October 2010 and April 2012, including
133 000 children under five during the famine and food crisis in Somalia making it the worst famine in history.
A study commissioned and funded by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Natio
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n’s food security and nutrition analysis unit for Somalia stated that the famine early warning systems clearly identified the risk of famine in South Central Somalia in 2010–2011 but timely action to prevent the onset of famine was not taken. The result was large scale
mortality, morbidity and population displacement.
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In the last decade, Timor-Leste has made remarkable progress in strengthening its health system and improving the health status of its population. This has resulted in an increased life expectancy, and the achievement of Millennium Development Goals such as a reduction in infant and under-five
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mortality, an improvement in maternal and child health outcomes, and an increase in immunization coverage. Further, the country has successfully eliminated infectious diseases such as polio, measles, and maternal and neonatal tetanus. There is full political commitment to reducing the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) by 80% and the number of deaths due to TB by 90% by 2030. The country has made great progress in the context of the pandemic, having established numerous quarantine facilities/isolation centres; trained health-care workers; streamlined the procurement and supply of medicines, consumables, personal protective equipment and other equipment; and strengthened the capacity in critical care across secondary and tertiary health care, to better respond to future pandemics and other disaster situations.
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