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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these changes vary substantially across countries, even at simi
...
lar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
more
As the Group of Eight (G8) world leaders meet in Saint Petersburg, Russia for this year’s G8 Summit, it is important to take stock of international efforts to finance the response to the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Financing a sufficient and sustained response to the epidemic has emerged as one of t
...
he world’s greatest challenges, and one that will be with us for the foreseeable future. Often, those countries most affected are also least able to respond, increasing their vulnerability to HIV/AIDS and in turn further complicating their ability to address the epidemic, as is the case for many nations in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, concerns have been raised about “second wave” nations, particularly China, India, and Russia, which stand on the brink of generalized epidemics if more is not done now
more
One of the most important gatherings of the world's economic leaders, the G20 Summit and ministerial meetings, takes place in June, 2019. The Summit presents a valuable opportunity to reflect on the provision and receipt of development assistance for health (DAH) and the role the G20 can have in sha
...
ping the future of health financing. The participants at the G20 Summit (ie, the world's largest providers of DAH, emerging donors, and DAH recipients) and this Summit's particular focus on global health and the Sustainable Development Goals offers a unique forum to consider the changing DAH context and its pressing questions. In this Health Policy perspective, we examined trends in DAH and its evolution over time, with a particular focus on G20 countries; pointed to persistent and emerging challenges for discussion at the G20 Summit;
more
What is high blood pressure in pregnancy?
Blood pressure is the force of your blood pushing against the walls of your arteries as your heart pumps blood. High blood pressure, or hypertension, is when this force against your artery walls is too high. There are different types of high blood pressure
...
in pregnancy:
Gestational hypertension is high blood pressure that you develop while you are pregnant. It starts after you are 20 weeks pregnant. You usually don't have any other symptoms. In many cases, it does not harm you or your baby, and it goes away within 12 weeks after childbirth. But it does raise your risk of high blood pressure in the future. It sometimes can be severe, which may lead to low birth weight or preterm birth. Some women with gestational hypertension do go on to develop preeclampsia.
Chronic hypertension is high blood pressure that started before the 20th week of pregnancy or before you became pregnant. Some women may have had it long before becoming pregnant but didn't know it until they got their blood pressure checked at their prenatal visit. Sometimes chronic hypertension can also lead to preeclampsia.
Preeclampsia is a sudden increase in blood pressure after the 20th week of pregnancy. It usually happens in the last trimester. In rare cases, symptoms may not start until after delivery. This is called postpartum preeclampsia. Preeclampsia also includes signs of damage to some of your organs, such as your liver or kidney. The signs may include protein in the urine and very high blood pressure. Preeclampsia can be serious or even life-threatening for both you and your baby.
more
The American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology are excited to provide a series of cardiovascular prevention guidelines for the assessment of cardiovascular risk, lifestyle modifications that reduce risk, management of elevated blood cholesterol, and management of increased bod
...
y weight in adults.
To support the implementation of these guidelines, the Pooled Cohort Equations CV Risk Calculator and additional Prevention Guideline Tools are available in the tools below as well as the AHA Guidelines On-the-Go Mobile App, found in the Apple Store and Google Play. Others may be developed and available in the near future.
The purpose of the ASCVD Risk Calculator is to estimate a patient’s 10-year ASCVD risk at an initial visit to establish a reference point. ACC/AHA guidelines recommend the use of the PCE as an important starting point, not as the final arbiter, for decision making in primary prevention of ASCVD.
more
For the global community to be able to achieve ambitious targets relating to the prevention and treatment of HIV, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections (STIs), multiple types of medicines must be widely accessible to all affected populations in all countries.
The purpose of this rep
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ort is to provide forecasts of future demand for medicines used in the fields of HIV, viral hepatitis and STIs. This report jointly presents medicines forecasts across three disease areas in recognition of the benefits of addressing HIV, viral hepatitis and STIs in a coordinated manner.
more
This briefing note summarizes work undertaken by UN Women and WHO to inform the development of a module on violence against women 60 years and older that can be included in dedicated surveys on violence against women. It provides an overview of the challenges in the availability, measurement, and co
...
llection of data on violence against older women. It also makes recommendations to address some of the issues identified, with the aim of strengthening ongoing and future data collection efforts on violence against older women and increasing its availability.
Developed as part of the UN Women–WHO Global Joint Programme on Violence Against Women Data, this methodological briefing note is one in a series that aims to strengthen the measurement and data collection of violence against particular groups of women or specific aspects of violence against women. These briefing notes are meant for researchers, national statistics offices, and others involved in data collection on violence against women. They seek to contribute to strengthening the quality and availability of data on violence against women and enhance global, regional, and national level monitoring of progress towards its elimination.
more
Developed as part of the UN Women–WHO Global Joint Programme on Violence Against Women Data, this briefing note focuses on the measurement of violence against women with disability and is one in a series of methodological briefing notes for strengthening the measurement and data collection of viol
...
ence against particular groups of women or specific aspects of violence against women.
The briefing note is meant for researchers, national statistics offices, and others involved in data collection on violence against women. It provides an overview of the challenges in the availability, measurement, and collection of data on violence against women with disability and outlines recommendations for good practice in measurement, with the aim of strengthening ongoing and future data collection efforts and increasing the availability of such data.
The inclusion of women with disability and the issue of disability within population-based surveys and research on violence against women is necessary for an improved understanding of populations of women at specific risk of violence. This knowledge would also allow more tailored prevention strategies and response/services and programmes to be designed in a way that addresses the specific needs of women with disability.
more
Africa CDC Institute of Pathogen Genomics (IPG) was launched in November 2019 and operates under the Division of Laboratory Systems and Networks.
IPG coordinate the implementation of molecular diagnostics, pathogen genomics and bioinformatics in National Public Health Institutions (NPHIs) and/or Re
...
fe-
-rence Laboratories (NRLs) across Africa.
Africa CDC and APHF are coordinating a continental initiative to maximize the benefits of molecular approaches and pathogen genomics for more effective
outbreak preparedness, prevention, response, and for the control and elimination of endemic diseases in Africa. One of Africa CDC’s flagship initiative is the Africa
Pathogen Genomics Initiative (Africa PGI), a partnership that aims to strengthen laboratory systems and enhance genomic surveillance by equipping the continent’s
public health institutions with the tools, training, and data infrastructure.
About the Project
In 2023, 166 outbreaks and public health events were reported in Africa. This calls for a resilient laboratory systems for timely detection and reporting of current and future outbreaks. This project aims to scale up molecular diagnostic and genomic sequencing-based detection and characterization of outbreaks.
Africa CDC is working with Member States to develop guidance, diagnostic algorithm, training and capacity building to enable outbreak detection, and reporting to inform public health response.
more
Unmet mental health needs in the Region of the Americas are a leading source of morbidity and mortality, which result in tremendous health, social, and economic consequences. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the mental health crisis in the Region, necessitating urgent action at the highest leve
...
ls of government and across sectors to build back better mental health now and for the future. This landmark report is the result of the PAHO High-Level Commission on Mental Health and COVID-19. It provides an analysis of the mental health situation in the Region, followed by a series of recommendations and corresponding actions to support countries in the Americas to prioritize and advance mental health using human rights- and equity-based approaches.
more
Today there is a new nutrition reality. It is a reality where undernutrition (such as micronutrient deficiencies, stunting and wasting) , overweight, obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) like diabetes and cancer now coexist in the same countries, communities, households and even
...
individuals. This is what is called the double burden of malnutrition which impacts not only our health but also that of future generations, the health of our planet and our economies.
This video is designed to help viewers better understand this double burden of malnutrition and its drivers. It aims to raise awareness and contribute to the global dialogue and much needed new narrative and action to achieve better health through nutrition.
more
The Community-based Health System Model Series briefs identify and discuss critical health system inputs and processes that have contributed to the implementation and expansion of community-based service delivery in different countries.
Countries were selected for their geographic diversity, type o
...
f service delivery model, and programmatic scale-up.
This brief reviews Malawi’s community health model to inform future policy, program design, and implementation in other countries.
more
Health-care waste management is a critical aspect of health-care systems, crucial for public health and environmental sustainability. This report provides valuable insights into the existing health-care waste management frameworks across 16 countries in the Western Pacific Region. It provides an ove
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rview of essential components of the legal framework and best practices, including adoption of environmental friendly technologies in policies and highlights both strengths and areas in need of improvement. The report provides recommendations to enhance the effectiveness and sustainability of future health-care waste management policies in the Region.
more
Just under 2.5 million people die annually due to alcohol use. This global estimate, however, excludes most of the health burden
borne by others than the alcohol user. Alcohol’s harm to others includes a multitude of conditions, such as trauma from traffic crashes, fetal disorders due to prenatal
...
exposure to alcohol, as well as interpersonal and intimate partner violence. While alcohol’s causal role in these conditions is well-established, alcohol’s harm to others’ contribution to the overall health burden of alcohol remains unknown. This knowledge gap leads to a situation in which alcohol policy and prevention strategies largely focus on the reduction of alcohol’s detrimental health harms on the alcohol users, neglecting affected others and population groups most vulnerable to these harms, including women and children. In this article, we seek to elucidate why estimates for alcohol’s harm to others are lacking and offer guidance for future research. We also argue that a full assessment of the alcohol health burden that includes the harm caused by others’ alcohol use would enhance the visibility and public awareness of such harms, and advancing the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate them.
more
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic exacerbated pre-existing inequalities in the treatment and care of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). This report examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on access to NCD medicines, and the policies and strategies implemented by countries and health sys
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tems to anticipate and mitigate stresses across NCD medicine supply chains. The full range of upstream and downstream impacts are investigated, including: manufacturing; procurement, importation and last mile delivery; patient-level effects through affordability and availability; and the effects on NCD medicine availability by category of disease. The report culminates in recommended actions and interventions for key stakeholders in the NCD pharmaceutical supply chain, including governments, regulatory authorities, manufacturers and the private sector; as well as directions for future research for improving access and supply chain access resilience.
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Public health emergencies, including pandemics, highlight the need for health systems and services that are prepared, resilient and ready to respond to health security threats. Endorsed by Member States in 2023, the Asia Pacific Health Security Action Framework (APHSAF) is designed to engage m
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ultisectoral actors in health security, and to reflect the complex nature of current and future public health emergencies. The Framework presents six interconnected, multisectoral domains of work that together form a comprehensive, multi-hazard health security system — emphasizing the One Health approach. The Framework also supports progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and universal health coverage while meeting the responsibilities and obligations of the International Health Regulations (2005).
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The aim of the GOLD Report is to provide a non-biased review of the current evidence for the assessment, diagnosis and treatment of people with COPD. One of the strengths of GOLD reports is the treatment objectives. These have stood the test of time, and are organized into two groups: objectives tha
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t are directed towards relieving and reducing the impact of symptoms, and objectives that reduce the risk of adverse health events that may affect the patient at some point in the future (exacerbations are an example of such events). This emphasizes the need for clinicians to focus on both the short-term and long-term impact of COPD on their patients.
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Risk factors for asthma among schoolchildren who participated in a casecontrol study in urban Uganda
Data on asthma aetiology in Africa are scarce. We investigated the risk factors for asthma among schoolchildren (5–17 years) in urban Uganda. We conducted a case-control study, among 555 cases and 1115 controls. Asthma was diagnosed by study clinicians. The main risk factors for asthma were tertia
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ry education for fathers (adjusted OR (95% CI); 2.32 (1.71–3.16)) and mothers (1.85 (1.38–2.48)); area of residence at birth, with children born in a small town or in the city having an increased asthma risk compared to schoolchildren born in rural areas (2.16 (1.60–2.92)) and (2.79 (1.79–4.35)), respectively; father’s and mother’s history of asthma; children’s own allergic conditions; atopy; and cooking on gas/electricity. In conclusion, asthma was associated with a strong rural-town-city risk gradient, higher parental socio-economic status and urbanicity. This work provides the basis for future studies to identify specific environmental/lifestyle factors responsible for increasing asthma risk among children in urban areas in LMICs.
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he aetiology of asthma and allergic disease remains poorly understood, despite considerable research. The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC), was founded to maximize the value of epidemiological research into asthma and allergic disease, by establishing a standardized m
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ethodology and facilitating international collaboration. Its specific aims are: 1) to describe the prevalence and severity of asthma, rhinitis and eczema in children living in different centres, and to make comparisons within and between countries; 2) to obtain baseline measures for assessment of future trends in the prevalence and severity of these diseases; and 3) to provide a framework for further aetiological research into genetic, lifestyle, environmental, and medical care factors affecting these diseases. The ISAAC design comprises three phases. Phase 1 uses core questionnaires designed to assess the prevalence and severity of asthma and allergic disease in defined populations. Phase 2 will investigate possible aetiological factors, particularly those suggested by the findings of Phase 1. Phase 3 will be a repetition of Phase 1 to assess trends in prevalence.
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Asthma is a chronic inflammatory condition characterized by airway hyper-responsiveness to a variety of stimuli largely of allergic origin with reversible airflow limitation. The major clinical features of asthma are wheezing, shortness of breath, and cough. It is a major cause of impaired quality o
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f life with impact on work and recreational as well as physical activities and emotions. The goal of treatment is to achieve overall clinical control, which entails the achievement of symptom-free control and to minimize future risks. The goal is the same for all severity of the disease.
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