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A general consensus exists that as a country develops economically, health spending per capita rises and the share of that spending that is prepaid through government or private mechanisms also rises. However, the speed and magnitude of these change
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s vary substantially across countries, even at similar levels of development. In this study, we use past trends and relationships to estimate future health spending, disaggregated by the source of those funds, to identify the financing trajectories that are likely to occur if current policies and trajectories evolve as expected.
Methods
We extracted data from WHO's Health Spending Observatory and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Financing Global Health 2015 report. We converted these data to a common purchasing power-adjusted and inflation-adjusted currency. We used a series of ensemble models and observed empirical norms to estimate future government out-of-pocket private prepaid health spending and development assistance for health. We aggregated each country's estimates to generate total health spending from 2013 to 2040 for 184 countries. We compared these estimates with each other and internationally recognised benchmarks.
Findings
Global spending on health is expected to increase from US$7·83 trillion in 2013 to $18·28 (uncertainty interval 14·42–22·24) trillion in 2040 (in 2010 purchasing power parity-adjusted dollars). We expect per-capita health spending to increase annually by 2·7% (1·9–3·4) in high-income countries, 3·4% (2·4–4·2) in upper-middle-income countries, 3·0% (2·3–3·6) in lower-middle-income countries, and 2·4% (1·6–3·1) in low-income countries. Given the gaps in current health spending, these rates provide no evidence of increasing parity in health spending. In 1995 and 2015, low-income countries spent $0·03 for every dollar spent in high-income countries, even after adjusting for purchasing power, and the same is projected for 2040. Most importantly, health spending in many low-income countries is expected to remain low. Estimates suggest that, by 2040, only one (3%) of 34 low-income countries and 36 (37%) of 98 middle-income countries will reach the Chatham House goal of 5% of gross domestic product consisting of government health spending.
Interpretation
Despite remarkable health gains, past health financing trends and relationships suggest that many low-income and lower-middle-income countries will not meet internationally set health spending targets and that spending gaps between low-income and high-income countries are unlikely to narrow unless substantive policy interventions occur. Although gains in health system efficiency can be used to make progress, current trends suggest that meaningful increases in health system resources will require concerted action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is often thought to be a problem of wealthy, industrialized nations. The term “cardiovascular disease” is used throughout the report to refer to cardiac disease, vascular diseases of the brain and kidney, and peripheral vascular disease. The report’s main focus is
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on the major contributors to global CVD mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke, and on the major modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. In fact, as the leading cause of death worldwide, CVD now has a major impact not only on developed nations but also on low and middle income countries, where it accounts for nearly 30 percent of all deaths. The terms “developed” and “high income countries” are used interchangeably throughout the report to refer to countries classified by the World Bank as high income economies. The terms “developing” and “low and middle income countries” are used interchangeably throughout the report to refer to countries classified by the World Bank as low, lower middle, and upper middle income economies. The increased prevalence of risk factors for CVD and related chronic diseases in developing countries, including tobacco use, unhealthy dietary changes, reduced physical activity, increasing blood lipids, and hypertension, reflects significant global changes in behavior and lifestyle. The term “chronic diseases” is used throughout the report to refer to CVD and the following related chronic diseases that share many common risk factors: diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease. These changes now threaten once-low-risk regions, a shift that is accelerated by industrialization, urbanization, and globalization. The potentially devastating effects of these trends are magnified by a deleterious economic impact on nations and households, where poverty can be both a contributing cause and a consequence of chronic diseases. The accelerating rates of unrecognized and inadequately addressed CVD and related chronic diseases in both men and women in low and middle income countries are cause for immediate action.
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BMC Medicine201210:107
https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-10-107© Katchanov and Birbeck; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2012
Received: 10 July 2012Accepted: 24 September 2012Published: 24 September 2012
In 2011, the World Health Organization’s
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(WHO) mental health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) released evidence-based epilepsy-care guidelines for use in low and middle income countries (LAMICs). From a
geographical, sociocultural, and political perspective, LAMICs represent a heterogenous group with significant differences in the epidemiology, etiology, and perceptions of epilepsy. Successful implementation of
the guidelines requires local adaptation for use within individual countries. For effective implementation and sustainability, the sense of ownership and empowerment must be transferred from the global health authorities to the local people. Sociocultural and financial barriers that impede the implementation of the guidelines should be
identified and ameliorated. Impact assessment and program revisions should be planned and a budget allocated to them. If effectively implemented, as intended, at the primary-care level, the mhGAP
guidelines have the potential to facilitate a substantial reduction in the epilepsy treatment gap and improve the quality of epilepsy care in resource-limited settings.
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Africa’s health sector is facing an unprecedented financing crisis, driven by a sharp decline of 70% in Official Development Assistance (ODA) from 2021 to 2025 and deep-rooted structural vulnerabilities. This collapse is placing immense pressure o
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n Africa’s already fragile health systems as ODA is seen as the backbone of critical health programs: pandemic preparedness, maternal and child health services, disease control programs are all at
risk, threatening Sustainable Development Goal 3 and Universal Health Coverage. Compounding this is Africa’s spiraling debt, with countries expected to service USD 81 billion by 2025—surpassing anticipated external financing inflows—further eroding fiscal space for health investments. Level of domestic resources is low. TThe Abuja Declaration of 2001, a pivotal commitment made by African Union (AU) member states, aimed to reverse this trend by pledging to allocate at least 15% of national budgets to the health sector. However, more than two decades later, only three countries—Rwanda, Botswana, and Cabo Verde—have
consistently met or exceeded this target (WHO, 2023). In contrast, over 30 AU member states remain well below the 10% benchmark, with some allocating as little as 5–7% of their national budgets to health.
In addition, only 16 (29%) of African countries currently have updated versions of National Health Development Plan (NHDP) supported by a National Health Financing Plan (NHFP). These two documents play a critical role in driving internal resource mobilisation. At the same time, public health emergencies are surging, rising 41%—from 152 in 2022 to
213 in 2024—exposing severe under-resourcing of health infrastructure and workforce. Recurring outbreaks (Mpox, Ebola, cholera, measles, Marburg…) alongside effects of climate change and humanitarian crises in Eastern DRC, the Sahel, and Sudan, are overwhelming systems stretched by chronic underfunding. The situation is worsened by Africa’s heavy dependency with over 90% of vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics being externally sourced—leaving countries vulnerable to global supply chain shocks. Health worker shortages persist, with only 2.3 professionals
per 1,000 people (below the WHO’s recommended 4.45), and fewer than 30% of systems are digitized, undermining disease surveillance and early warning. Without decisive action, Africa CDC projects the continent could reverse two decades of health progress, face 2 to 4 million additional preventable deaths annually, and a heightened risk of a pandemic emerging from within. Furthermore, 39 million more
Africans could be pushed into poverty by 2030 due to intertwined health and economic shocks. This is not just a sectoral crisis—it is an existential threat to Africa’s political, social, and economic resilience, and global stability. In response, African leaders, under Africa CDC’s stewardship, are advancing a comprehensive three-pillar strategy centered on domestic resource mobilization, innovative financing, and blended finance.
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The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) 2011-2020, endorsed by Member States during the May 2012 World Health Assembly, has set ambitious targets to
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improve access to immunization and tackle vaccine-preventable diseases. This responsibility has been translated into firm commitments in February 2016, through the signature of the Addis Declaration on Immunization (ADI) by African Ministers and subsequently endorsed by the Heads of States from across Africa at the 28th African Union Summit held in January 2017. This commitment from the highest level of government comes as a catalyst to immunization efforts on the continent to deliver on the promise of universal immunization
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The "Global NCD action plan" provides a road map and a menu of policy options for countries to take in order to attain the 9 voluntary global targe
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ts, including that of a 25% relative reduction in premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes or chronic respiratory diseases by 2025. The main focus of this action plan is on 4 types of NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes) which make the largest contribution to morbidity and mortality due to NCDs, and on 4 shared behavioural risk factors (tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, harmful use of alcohol).
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The Global Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) calls for making AMR a core component of professional education and training. In 2018, the World
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Health Organization (WHO) published Competency framework for health workers’ education and training on AMR to ensure that academic institutions and regulatory agencies provided pre-service and in-service training to equip health workers with the adequate competencies to address AMR. This was followed by Health workers’ training and education on AMR: curricula guide, which outlines the learning objectives and expected outcomes of pre-service training of health workers to improve curricula. These tools were designed to strengthen the capacity of health workers in various settings to address the growing challenge of AMR.
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Our duty of care
Abdul Rahim, H.F.; M. Fendt-Newlin, S. T. Al-Harahsheh, et al.
Quatar Foundation; Wolrd Innovation Summir ofr Health WISH
(2022)
CC
A global call to action to protect the mental health of health and care workers
The integrated Global Action Plan for Pneumonia and Diarrhoea (GAPPD)
This report is the first of its kind. It brings together various data sets to present the current status of hand hygiene, highlight lagging progress, and call governments and supporting agencies to action, offering numerous inspiring examples of cha
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nge.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, hand hygiene received unprecedented attention and became a central pillar in national COVID prevention strategies. However, concern with hand hygiene should not only be as temporary public health measure in times of crisis, but as a vital everyday behaviour that contributes to health and economic resilience. Hand hygiene is a highly cost-effective investment, providing outsized health benefits for relatively little cost.
Despite efforts to promote hand hygiene, the rates of access to hand hygiene facilities remain stubbornly low. If current rates of progress continue, by the end of the SDG era in 2030, 1.9 billion people will still lack facilities to wash their hands at home.
This report presents a compelling case for investment in five key ‘accelerators’ as a pathway towards achieving hand hygiene for all – governance, financing, capacity development, data and information, and innovation. These accelerators are identified under the UN-Water SDG 6 Global Acceleration Framework.
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Lessons learned from recent public health events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Ebola virus disease, Zika virus disease outbreaks, and other public health threats, including earthquakes and floods,
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have highlighted the need for countries to continuously develop, strengthen, and maintain capacities required under the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR (2005)).
Developing capacities for health security in a country requires the engagement of public and private entities across a broad range of sectors, including human and animal health, agriculture, environment, finance, security, emergency management, education, and transportation. The World Health Organization (WHO) is mandated through various resolutions, decisions, and reports of the World Health Assembly, and through the IHR (2005), to provide technical guidance and support to its Member States in developing, strengthening, and maintaining their health systems, including capacities required under the IHR (2005).
For countries to better prevent, prepare for, detect, notify, respond to, and recover from public health emergencies, they must build and maintain IHR core capacities and support the strengthening of health emergency prevention, preparedness, response, and resilience (HEPR) capacities. National Action Plans for Health Security (NAPHS), as capacity development plans, provide the tasks and resources needed to ensure adequate capacities are in place to prevent, detect, respond to, and recover from public health events in a sustainable manner. Investing in the resilience of these capacities within national health systems at national and local levels not only improves national health security but also helps safeguard economic, social, and political developments.
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The Global Fund’s Board meeting on 14-16 November 2023 was its 50th; and among the many issues for
information was on resource mobilization. The Board document provided an update on the status of the
conversion of pledges and the signing of dono
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r agreements. In addition, it presented the results of the
lessons learned from the Seventh Replenishment and sought feedback on the proposed actions leading up to the Eighth Replenishment. It also discussed ongoing resource mobilization, advocacy and communication efforts, as well as actions to mitigate funding and reputational risks.
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ClimaHealth
recommended
Global Knowledge for Climate and Public Health. Informing action to protect populations from the health
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risks of climate change. It is in response to growing calls for actionable information to protect people from the health risks of climate change and other environmental hazards.
Climate and health are inextricably linked. Climate change, extreme weather events and environmental degradation have fundamental impact on human health and well-being. More people than ever before are exposed to increased climate-related health risks, from poor water and air quality to infectious diseases and heat stress.
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The key actions, activities, and approaches in this document are organized within each of the 5Cs (see Table 1 in the PDF) and those of the Strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) pillars as follows:
National action plan key activities, p
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rioritized for the current context and the current understanding of the threat of SARS-CoV-2
A. Transition from emergency response to longer term COVID-19 disease management.
B. Integrate activities into routine systems.
C. Strengthen global health security.
Special considerations for fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable (including humanitarian) settings
WHO global and regional support to Member States to implement their national action plans
Key guidance documents for reference
This is a living document that will be updated to incorporate new technical guidance in response to the evolving epidemiological situation. National plans should be implemented in accordance with the principles of inclusiveness, respect for human rights, and equity.
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This report summarizes the latest scientific knowledge on the links between exposure to air pollution and adverse health effects in children. It is intended to inform and motivate individual and collective
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action by health care professionals to prevent damage to children’s health from exposure to air pollution.
Air pollution is a major environmental health threat. Exposure to fine particles in both the ambient environment and in the household causes about seven million premature deaths each year. Ambient air pollution alone imposes enormous costs on the global economy, amounting to more than US$ 5 trillion in total welfare losses in 2013.
This public health crisis is receiving more attention, but one critical aspect is often overlooked: how air pollution affects children in uniquely damaging ways. Recent data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) show that air pollution has a vast and terrible impact on child health and survival. Globally, 93% of all children live in environments with air pollution levels above the WHO guidelines (see the full report, Air pollution and child health: prescribing clean air. More than one in every four deaths of children under 5 years of age is directly or indirectly related to environmental risks. Both ambient air pollution and household air pollution contribute to respiratory tract infections that resulted in 543 000 deaths in children under the age of 5 years in 2016.
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To complement the Global Strategy progress reporting, this report provides a detailed look at country leadership and action toward the Every Newborn National Milestones by 2020. Countries have taken
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the initiative to show the way forward and have demonstrated significant progress. As part of monitoring this progress, countries have adopted the Every Newborn Tracking Tool. This report presents a compilation of the data collated by the Every Newborn Tracking Tool in 2016, when 51 countries adopted the tool; it also spotlights examples of specific country activity for each National Milestone. Finally, Global Milestones for 2020 were part of the Every Newborn Action Plan to guide global and regional work in support of country efforts and this report highlights relevant progress towards those Global Milestones.
more
This report summarizes the latest scientific knowledge on the links between exposure to air pollution and adverse health effects in children. It is intended to inform and motivate individual and collective
...
action by health care professionals to prevent damage to children’s health from exposure to air pollution.
Air pollution is a major environmental health threat. Exposure to fine particles in both the ambient environment and in the household causes about seven million premature deaths each year. Ambient air pollution alone imposes enormous costs on the global economy, amounting to more than US$ 5 trillion in total welfare losses in 2013.
This public health crisis is receiving more attention, but one critical aspect is often overlooked: how air pollution affects children in uniquely damaging ways. Recent data released by the World Health Organization (WHO) show that air pollution has a vast and terrible impact on child health and survival. Globally, 93% of all children live in environments with air pollution levels above the WHO guidelines (see the full report, Air pollution and child health: prescribing clean air. More than one in every four deaths of children under 5 years of age is directly or indirectly related to environmental risks. Both ambient air pollution and household air pollution contribute to respiratory tract infections that resulted in 543 000 deaths in children under the age of 5 years in 2016.
more
AMR Multi-Stakeholder Partnership Platform
recommended
The AMR Multi-Stakeholder Partnership Platform aims to catalyse a global movement for action against antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by fostering cooperation between a diverse range of stakeholders a
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t all levels across the One Health spectrum. It seeks to ensure a healthier, more sustainable and resilient present and future in which antimicrobials are preserved as critical lifesaving medicines accessible to everyone.
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Beating the DRUM in Lower-Income Countries: Domestic Resource Use and Mobilization for SDG3
The Governments of Burkina Faso and Norway, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the World Bank Group
Global Financing Facility (GFF)
(2018)
CC
This paper has been prepared to inform discussion at the conference “Beating the DRUM - Domestic Resource Use and Mobilization for accelerating progress towards SDG3,”. Many countries face critical shortfalls in domestic resource use and mobilization (DRUM) for
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health, threatening to push health goals out of reach. DRUM failures weaken human capital formation, a vital input to economic growth. Countries need more and better health spending. The first step is to apply already-proven DRUM solutions, adapting them to new contexts. However, in many countries, even the best achievable DRUM performance will not be enough. New solutions are needed, including private-sector engagement and a next generation of DAH. The “Beating the DRUM” conference offers a platform for countries and partners to dialogue and build joint strategy. While each country’s situation is unique, shared lines of action are emerging.
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The road map sets global targets and milestones to prevent, control, eliminate or eradicate 20 diseases and disease groups as well as cross-cutting targets aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. Three foundational pillars will support
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global efforts to achieve the targets: accelerate programmatic action (pillar 1), intensify cross-cutting approaches (pillar 2) and change operating models and culture to facilitate country ownership (pillar 3).
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